Oil: OPEC upscaling the supply

Oil: OPEC upscaling the supply

2021-04-05 • Updated

Fundamental

OPEC+ meeting last week was concluded with the following results:

  1. The cartel gradually increased the oil supply by 1mln bpd over the course of the three months ahead;
  2. Saudi Arabia is putting back to supply its 1mln bpd that it previously voluntarily cut.

The decision was rather unexpected. While some of the cartel’s members (Russia) were known for pushing to roll back oil supply, most of the other members were believed to follow a conservative and cautious course of Saudi Arabia. The latter advised it’s time to “test” the market and review results on April 28 when the next meeting is scheduled.

However, while the OPEC’s decision was a result of inner compromise rather than a true belief in the confident demand recovery, observers are not pessimistic on the latter. Therefore, the upside is still a possible projection area for the oil price.

Technical

Currently, WTI oil is fluctuating around $60. After it reached $68 at the beginning of March, it never came back. Moreover, it lost more than $10 of value dropping to $57 later on. Since then, higher lows have been forming suggesting that the downward correction may be over. As the technical pattern of the triangle indicates, sideways movement may extend through the middle of April until bulls come back to take over and break the resistance of $62.

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