OIL: storms and prices

OIL: storms and prices

2020-10-09 • Updated

Oil dropped below $37 per barrel at the beginning of September. By the middle of the month, it was in $41. October saw it drop to the same range of $36.50-37, just slightly higher. Finally, now we are witnessing it come again to $41-41.15. So the question is: will bounce down again as it did three weeks ago, or it will break the resistance and aim at $43.50?

Hurricane Delta seems to leave little room for doubts: the price will rise. This category 3 storm in the Gulf of Mexico has forced the emergency shutdown of many businesses, including those of oil extraction, many of which are located in the south of the US – exactly where the hurricane is expected to hit. Therefore, this temporary stall of oil production will lead to a consecutive local shortage of oil supply, tilting the balance towards higher prices. In case you like geopolitics, this is happening at the background of the OPEC emerging from the virus with the high market share as many US oil producers had to discontinue their business because of low prices in the previous months. In this sense, Delta boosts the oil price and the OPEC’s tactical position at the same time.

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