2020-12-04 • Updated
USD/JPY: The pair is trading below the cloud. Further bearish pressure will lead the currency pair to retest the previous lows.
XAG/USD: Silver consolidates above 61.8% retracement area. Buyers have returned.
Asian shares scaled a record high on Friday on growing prospects of a large U.S. economic stimulus package, while hopes that coronavirus vaccine rollouts will boost the global economy underpinned investor sentiment.
Looking ahead, highlights from macroeconomic calendar include EZ Construction PMI, US and Canadian Labour Market reports, US Durable Goods (R), Baker Hughes Rig Count, BoE's Saunders, Tenreyro, Fed's Evans, Bowman and Kashkari speeches.
In commodities, oil prices got an additional lift after OPEC and Russia agreed to slightly ease their deep oil output cuts from January by 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) even as they failed to find a compromise on a broader and longer term policy.
The United States topped 14 million known COVID-19 infections with over 100,000 patients hospitalized for the first time. California imposed stay-at-home orders to take effect when intensive care units approach capacity in the coming days.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has raised interest rates by 25 basis points, marking its tenth consecutive rate hike since July 2022 and bringing the total increase to 450 basis points. The ECB is primarily concerned about high inflation levels, both current and projected, with concerns extending into the future.
The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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