2022-12-15 • Updated
European Union is one of the most economically stable regions in the world. Inflation is usually low, so are the bank rates. Some of the banks even charge fees for depositing the euro. But coronavirus changed the game. Now, the European central bank needs to act to support the rapidly changing economy. This article will analyze the possible scenarios for the EU, and what's more important, look at the charts. There is a lot to see, let's go!
President Christine Lagarde's press conference fell quite clearly on the hawkish side on February 3. While there were no changes in the ECB's action, the comments during the press conference were interesting. As expected, all monetary policy instruments were left unchanged.
The ECB still expects a strong economic recovery and points to strong labor market developments over the coming months. At the same time, the risks to the economic outlook were still labeled as "broadly balanced," but the ECB stressed more downside factors than it has previously. Regarding the inflation assessment, the ECB spoke less about the expected inflation trajectory. Even more interestingly, the ECB reintroduced the phrase that "risks to the inflation outlook are tilted to the upside for the first time in years." This risk assessment had disappeared from the ECB's introductory statements when quantitative easing (QE) was started.
No one could have seriously expected the ECB to act today as there is simply nothing the ECB can do to bring down inflation immediately. But now, the market has a clearer view of the bank's plans. This year, Lagarde opened the door to a speeding up of asset purchase reductions and a rate hike. Considering all this and assuming that energy prices do not drive over the next four weeks, we expect the ECB to speed up the reduction of net asset purchases and bring them to an end in September. It will allow the ECB to hike the deposit rate at least once before the end of the year.
The support at 1.1180 got cleared, and bullish divergence on the RSI has formed. From now on, the euro looks strong against the dollar. We expect the pair to consolidate between 1.1300 and 1.1500 before the further surge.
EUR/USD daily chart
Resistance: 1.1500; 1.1680; 1.1900
Support: 1.1300; 1.1120
We see the reaction to round 132.00 round number in EUR/JPY. A pullback to 200-daily MA should happen before any growth.
EUR/JPY daily chart
Resistance: 132.00; 133.30
Support: 130.50; 130.00; 128.40
The same goes for EUR/GBP. Robust bullish momentum will slow down as the market decides the next movement. So a 0.8422 is a sweet zone for buy orders.
EUR/GBP JPY daily chart
Resistance: 0.8500; 0.8600
Support: 0.8422; 0.8380
To sum up, the euro skyrocketed a little bit too much and needs a minor correction. But overall, we expect EUR to rise in a matter of weeks.
The upcoming August inflation data may send mixed signals. The 12-month headline inflation rate is expected to rise to 3.6%, causing concerns for the Biden administration. However, core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, is projected to decrease to 4.3%, aligning with the Federal Reserve's goals. Past price trends influence both figures, so looking at recent data for a more accurate picture is crucial.
The odds of a final interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) this year have dropped after US job openings hit their lowest levels since early 2021. This has led to a correction in the US Dollar as traders reduced their bets on further rate hikes.
Here we go again, my friends. It’s time to look critically into the future of what trading opportunities September might have in store for us. As always, it is essential to note that the views expressed here are mine and should not be considered financial advice without proper examination.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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