TRY: hopes of deliverance

In just several hours, USD/TRY went down from 8.40 to 8.00. Although we already got pretty used to turbulence with the Turkish lira, a move this big is something quite outstanding. What’s happening?

Two days ago, the Turkish President Erdogan fired the central bank governor Murat Uysal. One day ago, the President’s son-in-law Berat Albayrak – the Finance Minister of Turney – announced he would go too. These events may well be a consequence of the fact that the Turkish lira lost very much value this year, the inflation is very high, and the Turkish central bank was reluctant to raise the rates under these conditions… so far. Hopes that this “so far” would change are the emotional spark that pushes the lira.

On the other hand, we don’t really know what stands between those announcements in the circles of Turkish financial authorities. It may also be that it was just another personnel toss that Erdogan did to ensure the faithfulness of those who rule the lira. In this case, we will see the Turkish lire get back into the negative zone.

The reality is: the Turkish lira doesn’t care who is the Turkish central bank governor or the minister of finance. The actions are what matters, who delivers them – doesn’t. And as long the direction of the monetary policy in Turkey – which is very politely called “unorthodox” by observers – stays the same, the lira will do nothing but lose value. Therefore, don’t take this drop as a game-changer yet. Rather, it’s a good offer for a tactical entry.

Gaspar Markosyan

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