2019-11-11 • Updated
USD/CAD continues to trade mostly sideways in the broad consolidation range of 1.3260 – 1.3455. On Tuesday, the greenback spiked to 1.3455 after we got a disappointing trade balance release out of Canada. Towards the end of the week, loonie managed to snatch substantial gains and recoup some of its losses due to surging oil prices. The latter ones hit their last month highs (Brent oil futures reached $56.07 on Friday) after the launch of US missiles against a Syrian government airbase. The US labor market report released on Friday was a mixed bag with the better-than-expected unemployment rate and missing NFP data.
Next week the Bank of Canada will announce its rate statement on Tuesday at 5:00 MT time. There is a small risk of a significant change in the bank’s current policy stance, as economic performance of the country and Canada’s inflation figures have little changed from February. Country’s exports are still facing some challenges with competitiveness and protectionist rhetoric increases in the US. A dovish stance of the bank will keep Canadian yields and the loonie under pressure. Any hawkish skew in the statement can lead to the short-term appreciation of the CAD. In the end of the week, traders should be focused on Canadian manufacturing sales and US inflation figures.
At the present moment, the technical outlook for the pair is neutral. If prices break the upper border of 1.3260/1.3455 consolidation range, there will be a continuation of the rally towards resistances at 1.3533 (March 9 high), 1.3600. On the downside, the immediate supports can be found at 1.3290/1.3260 levels.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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