2019-11-11 • Updated
USD/CAD continues to trade mostly sideways in the broad consolidation range of 1.3260 – 1.3455. On Tuesday, the greenback spiked to 1.3455 after we got a disappointing trade balance release out of Canada. Towards the end of the week, loonie managed to snatch substantial gains and recoup some of its losses due to surging oil prices. The latter ones hit their last month highs (Brent oil futures reached $56.07 on Friday) after the launch of US missiles against a Syrian government airbase. The US labor market report released on Friday was a mixed bag with the better-than-expected unemployment rate and missing NFP data.
Next week the Bank of Canada will announce its rate statement on Tuesday at 5:00 MT time. There is a small risk of a significant change in the bank’s current policy stance, as economic performance of the country and Canada’s inflation figures have little changed from February. Country’s exports are still facing some challenges with competitiveness and protectionist rhetoric increases in the US. A dovish stance of the bank will keep Canadian yields and the loonie under pressure. Any hawkish skew in the statement can lead to the short-term appreciation of the CAD. In the end of the week, traders should be focused on Canadian manufacturing sales and US inflation figures.
At the present moment, the technical outlook for the pair is neutral. If prices break the upper border of 1.3260/1.3455 consolidation range, there will be a continuation of the rally towards resistances at 1.3533 (March 9 high), 1.3600. On the downside, the immediate supports can be found at 1.3290/1.3260 levels.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Welcome to October, the tenth month of 2023. For this installment of What to Trade, I have handpicked a few of my favorite trade ideas for the month. Let’s go over a few of them.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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