USD/CAD: technical long term

USD/CAD: technical long term

2020-06-16 • Updated

The fundamental layout for USD/CAD suggests a continuous appreciation of the USD against the CAD. At least, this has been the case for the last 10 years, and it makes sense: in a normal state of expansion, the US economy is much stronger than the Canadian, and the latter depends on the US consumption. That’s why, although the currency pair has been going sideways in the channel 1.2960 – 1.3360 just as we see on the left side on the chart, it is a part of a larger uptrend.

At the same time, the heights at which USD/CAD has been trading in February-May (mostly above 1.3860) are not a “natural” baseline channel where USD/CAD would come following the long-term trend. Rather, it was pushed there “superficially” by fearful investors who were mostly trading risk-off during the fiercest months of the virus crisis. Now, as global infection rates decrease, there is no solid ground for such an inflated drive upwards for USD/CAD – hence the mid-term downturn we see. The latest bullish episode with a leap from 1.3360 to the current 1.3653 just confirms this assumption: USD got appreciated on the second wave fear; once it gets dissipated, it will get descend to get into a slower, almost sideways-looking ascension.

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