USD/TRY: short-term and near-term outlook

USD/TRY: short-term and near-term outlook

2019-11-11 • Updated

The lira strengthened significantly following President Erdogan referendum victory held on April 16. Yet it was hardly the win the president had expected. The yes camp limped away with just 51.4% of the vote. The opposition and outside observers accused the country’s electoral board with stacking the odds in Mr. Erodgan’s favor. Investors seemed to be less concerned with the fairness of referendum’s results; they welcomed outcome although there are still many questions of how Erdogan will use his enhanced powers to reunite splintered nation, revive economic growth, bring inflation under control, strengthen lira, resolve problems with country’s external woes and widened the current-account deficit.

On this Monday, with the first round of France’s presidential election complete, many emerging market currencies managed to escape a potential sell-off trigger that they would have experienced if centrist Macron hadn’t won the runoff. So, the Turkish lira extended its post-referendum gains since the French results announcement. USD/TRY slumped to 3.5675. In the following day, the Turkish currency lost its steam despite the great efforts of the Turkish Central Bank to strengthen its exchange rate and fight inflation. Earlier today Turkish central bank officials unexpectedly increased its late liquidity window rate by 50 bp to 12.25% despite pressure from Erodgan’s government to avoid tightening measure. The bank officials seem to be deaf to government’s threats; they are determined to tackle the country’s inflation problem with additional tightening measure if needed. The lira strengthened after the decision and started trading at 3.5720 against the US dollar. The lira’s rally has little support though as Donald Trump is preparing to reveal his tax plan later today.

The technical outlook for USD/TRY is bullish. The prices failed to break a solid support line at 3.5483 which is the basis of the descending triangle – a bearish chart pattern. Now, the quotes are heading towards the salient resistance at 3.6521, near the coming closer together of 50- and 100-day MAs. A break of this resistance will open the way towards next hurdle at 3.7475 (April 7 high). If markets are disappointed with Trump not providing sufficient details on his tax plan, USD/TRY might try test the support at 3.5483, or lower levels. 

Similar

What will move the market on September 6-10?
What will move the market on September 6-10?

Last Friday’s NFP was disappointing. The reaction of the markets was astonishing. Will it last longer? Let's find out the main trade opportunities for the upcoming week.

USD Declines on Powell Remarks
USD Declines on Powell Remarks

After multiple hawkish remarks over the past few days from non-voters members, the Federal Reserve chairman Powell surprised the markets with some dovish remarks…

S&P in the Сrosshairs
S&P in the Сrosshairs

Institutional investors speak about further growth in the stock market. In the exact market that has doubled since COVID-19 and doesn’t plan to stop. Is it possible?

Latest news

Walmart earnings outlook
Walmart earnings outlook

Walmart is one of the biggest retail corporations in the US, with $244 billion in total assets. Does it worth buying amid rising prices and supply concerns that shatter the world economy?

Deposit with your local payment systems

Be on top of your game

Data collection notice

FBS maintains a record of your data to run this website. By pressing the “Accept” button, you agree to our Privacy policy.

Callback

A manager will call you shortly.

Change number

Your request is accepted.

A manager will call you shortly.

Next callback request for this phone number
will be available in

If you have an urgent issue please contact us via
Live chat

Internal error. Please try again later

Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!

Beginner Forex book

Beginner Forex book will guide you through the world of trading.

Beginner Forex book

The most important things to start trading
Enter your e-mail, and we will send you a free Beginner Forex book

Thank you!

We've emailed a special link to your e-mail.
Click the link to confirm your address and get Beginner Forex book for free.

You are using an older version of your browser.

Update it to the latest version or try another one for a safer, more comfortable and productive trading experience.

Safari Chrome Firefox Opera