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USD/CHF: back to the upside
2021-03-22 • Updated
The background
Since the last global economic crisis, the USD has been trading against CHF at approximately equal value. USD/CHF rarely dropped more than 10% and was quick to recover the losses to the same level of 1.00 all along the last several years.
However, March 2020 changed the layout. USD/CHF experienced a very heavy blow of fluctuation and started going down: by the end of 2020, it was above 0.88.
Eventually, in December 2020, Donald Trump labeled Switzerland a "currency manipulator". The statement was then revoked by other US officials but the Swiss National Bank took measures to stop the appreciation of the Swiss franc.
Currently, one US dollar is worth approximately 0.92 Swiss francs.
The outlook
During its last press conference, the SNB advised that the interest rate will be kept steady at -0.75 where it is now at least through 2022. By then, if the inflation and economic dynamics are at the expected level of full recovery, the monetary stance may be adapted to the new economic environment.
Until then, however, we may take it that the monetary course of SNB will keep the same direction. Therefore, we may expect that the SNB will try to move the Swiss franc to pre-virus levels - meaning, closer to 1.00 for USD/CHF.
Therefore, in the coming months, we may see a further bullish push in USD/CHF - until the current enter the stabilization zone 1.00-0.97.
Action plan
- Use high timeframes
- Watch for bullish chart formations
- Unless reversals occur, USD/CHF is likely to keep gaining value until it reaches 1.00-0.97
- As long as the payout stays the same, it's a long-term buy opportunity for position-trading bulls
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