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USD/MXN: retrocession
2020-09-10 • Updated
Technical view
On the daily chart below we see a gradual – with the exception of May-June – descent of the USD against the MXN. As the crisis kicked in, USD/MXN leaped to 25.50 in March, and since then has been sliding down. Currently, it trades below 21.40 flirting with June low and appearing pretty serious to cross it. Down below, we have 21.00 – that’s still within the downtrend if the price keeps the same pace.
In the meantime, a long-term view shows that even lower zones may be possibly targeted by USD/MXN – if it crosses 21.00 downwards. The support of 20.00 seems to be the most probable destination in the midterm. However, it is still in the upper zone of the trend projection (marked “1”) if we remove the Feb-Aug virus distortion. Everything below the 100-MA and especially 200-MA is also a very possible destination (marked “2”) but this will take longer to reveal. First, we have the key support of 20.00 and the 50-MA to check the bearish potential.
Fundamental view
The Mexican peso is weak because the Mexican economy is weak – relative to the American. In a stable outside environment, however, this weakness is stable and transformed into a gradual rise with intermittent periods of sideways movement – you can see it in the monthly chart below. But when a crisis hits, the background field gets disproportionately distorted, and the peso can no longer sustain all the pressure – and falls. That’s why we see spikes like this in USD/MXN every time there is a serious global or regional crisis: such as the current one, and as in 2008. After that, it comes back to normal sluggish ascension – which is what’s happening now. Getting back to normal. In this sense, going down to 20.00 appears as a natural, expected and even a duly event with USD/MXN. There are other factors for it: the USD is also trembling on the US-China bumps and Pre-election tensions. In the meantime, the MXN may get stronger on international companies moving their facilities from China to Mexico due to the said tensions. Therefore, keep watching the key levels of 21.00 and 20.00 and follow the trends with us!
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