2022-12-16 • Dikemaskini
AUD/USD has been sliding lower and lower since the beginning of November, although it’s still a great deal away from October lows. Market sentiment has been more or less stable: there was plenty of news about the trade talks between the United States and China, but nothing really decisive has arrived. The Aussie’s fellow commodity currency, the NZD, has been doing much better in trading versus the greenback, and it’s natural that AUD/NZD has plummeted this month.
From the observations described above, we can make one evident conclusion: the AUD is under negative pressure primarily because of Australia’s domestic problems. Indeed, the seasonally adjusted private capital expenditure fell by 0.2% in the Q3 after declining by 0.6% in the June quarter. Inflation remains below the target, manufacturing and services PMIs point at industry contraction. Moreover, Australian employment suffered its sharpest fall in 3 years in October, while the unemployment rate rose to 5.3%.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will meet on Tuesday, December 3. According to the forecasts, the RBA will leave the cash rate at the record low level of 0.75%. Still, economists are talking about the need for urgent stimulus to revive economic activity and wages. The market has priced in an 11% chance of a cut in interest rates to 0.5%. As a result, the wording of the central bank’s statement will be quite important. Governor Philip Lowe underlined that negative interest rates and quantitative easings were not likely anytime soon but suggested that the RBA would implement QE when the cash rate hit 0.25%. Many analysts haven't considered such a big decline in the benchmark interest rate, so they lowered forecasts for the AUD. All in all, if the central bank’s statement contains worries about the national economy, traders will price in rate cuts next year and this will hurt the AUD. If not, the impact on the AUD will be closer to neutral.
Apart from the monetary policy decision, Australia will release a bunch of economic figures in the upcoming days. Here are the key indicators to pay attention to:
On balance, the forecasts imply a cautious approach to the AUD. Still, if there are big positive surprises, the AUD may jump up.
Finally, traders will keep monitoring the US-China story. For now, the key question is whether the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act signed by Donald Trump this week ruins the upcoming phase 1 trade deal or not.
AUD/USD formed a lower high and slipped below the daily MAs. Support lies at 0.6750 and 0.6725 ahead of 0.6670 (multi-year low). Resistance is at 0.6830, 0.6880 and 0.6930.
Dua tahun ini, kita menyaksikan pergerakan harga minyak terbesar dalam tempoh 14 tahun, yang membingungkan pasaran, pelabur dan pedagang akibat ketegangan geopolitik dan peralihan ke tenaga bersih.
Selepas beberapa bulan menerima tekanan dari Rumah Putih, Arab Saudi mengalah dan bersetuju untuk meningkatkan pengeluaran bersama dengan ahli-ahli OPEC+ yang lain.
Penghujung tahun semakin hampir Apakah yang akan dibawakan oleh 2021 kepada kita? Jom ketahui apakah jangkaan di fikiran bank-bank besar!
Fed mengumumkan pada hari Rabu bahawa ia membiarkan kadar dasar tidak berubah pada 5…
Jepun melangkah lebih dekat kepada campur tangan mata wang dengan amaran terkuatnya apabila yen merosot ke paras paling lemah dalam kira-kira 34 tahun berbanding dolar…
Sentimen pasaran yang memulih pada pembukaan dagangan awal minggu semalam telah menukar semula haluan pergerakan USD…
FBS menyimpan rekod data anda untuk mengoperasikan laman web ini. Dengan menekan butang "Terima", anda menyetujui Polisi Privasi kami.
Permohonan anda telah diterima
Pengurus akan menghubungi anda dalam amsa terdekat
Permohonan panggil balik seterusnya untuk nombor telefon ini
boleh dilakukan dalam dalam
Jika anda mempunyai isu yang perlu disegerakan, sila hubungi kami menerusi
Live Chat
Masalah dalaman. Sila cuba sebentar lagi
Jangan bazir masa anda – pantau bagaimana NFP mempengaruhi dolar AS dan kaut keuntungan!
|
