Last Tuesday, the Australian dollar experienced its steepest drop of the year, falling by 1.18%, following higher-than-expected US inflation figures, which boosted the US dollar. However, the Aussie has since rebounded and is now trading at a two-week high against the US dollar. Investors are...
Will NFP Be Positive for the US Dollar?
2023-12-07 • Updated
As the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) take center stage, this month's data gains special attention, particularly after the unemployment rate took a concerning turn in the previous month. The US ADP Employment Change reveals a significant decline, with the economy adding 298K new jobs in the last three months, marking a 68% drop from the robust 947K new jobs in the preceding quarter. While the official NFP data indicates the addition of 150K new jobs in November, following a strong October reading of 336K, the disparity between ADP and NFP figures raises questions about the reliability of the latter.
Market sentiment leans towards trusting the ADP data more, considering the potential for substantial revisions in the NFPs.
The recent uptick in the unemployment rate, reaching 3.9% from a multi-year low of 3.4% at the beginning of 2023, aligns with the anticipated weakening of the labor market, a trend acknowledged by both the Federal Reserve and investors.
EURUSD - H1 Timeframe
EURUSD has recently broken above the trendline resistance as a result of the pressure from its rejection from the daily demand zone. On this basis, and considering the fact that the RSI (Relative Strength Index) on the Daily timeframe is oversold at the moment, it appears to me that there would be a temporary bullish impulse on EURUSD in the meantime.
GBPUSD - H1 Timeframe
GBPUSD on the hourly timeframe has broken and retested the resistance trendline, leading me to believe that a bullish impulse could be in motion. The fact that the demand zone on the daily timeframe was the origin of the bullish impulse can also be considered a confluence in support of the bullish sentiment.
USDJPY - H4 Timeframe
USDJPY seems to be reacting off the demand zone on the daily timeframe, however, I have reason to believe that this movement could be price’s way of letting off some steam after the impulsive drop over the past week. In this regard, it would be best, however, to seek further confluences on the lower timeframes before taking an entry.
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Commerzbank's analysis suggests a brighter outlook for the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) in the coming months despite recent downward pressure. Factors like broader U.S. Dollar strength and domestic issues have kept the NZD below last year's highs. However, robust labor markets in both New Zealand and Australia and an expected...
What causes the yen to fall, and how does it behave against the USD, EUR, and AUD
Intraday and swing scenarios based on price action and volume profile.
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Last week I gave a trade idea on XAUUSD with a target around the $2,020 price line. At the time of writing, XAUUSD already exceeded the target and I’m sure that would leave a lot of people wondering what to expect next. Below, I have presented my view of how I expect the price action to turn out in the meantime.