Current Risks for Developed Economies
Oil prices are rising while the US government is on the verge of shutting down. How will it affect the market?
NFP is coming!
What will happen?
Non-farm payrolls, the most awaited economic report, will be out on March 5 at 15:30 MT time. The last time, NFP fell short of analysts’ expectations: 49 000 jobs were added in January versus the forecasted 50 000. That was a small gain as the US economy still needs 10 million jobs to offset the pandemic losses. Apart from that, the NFP serves as a base for the future rate decision by the Fed. The high level of the indicator increases the possibility of more rate hikes in future (bullish for the USD), on the other hand, the decline in the NFP figures raises concerns about the economic slowdown and reduces the number of projected rate hikes by the Fed (bearish for the USD).
How to trade on NFP?
NFP can be named the most significant release for all traders as most of the time this indicator makes the market extremely volatile. Pay attention that NFP comes out in combination with average hourly earnings and unemployment rate.
- If all the three indicators come out better than the forecasts, the USD will rise.
- If all the indicators are worse than the forecasts, the USD will drop.
- If NFP comes better, but earnings – worse, the USD will spike at first, but it will fall with the second wave.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY, GBP/USD
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