US dollar: forecast for Nov. 27 - Dec. 1

The US dollar has been heavily sold for 3 weeks in a row. The fundamental picture for the USD remains weak. The Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen expressed concerns about the potential decline in inflation if rate hikes come too fast. Durable goods orders fell by 1.2% in October. The minutes of the Fed meeting showed that not all members of the central bank were in favor of a rate hike in the short-term. Finally, there are concerns about the US tax reform as the House of Representatives and the Senate have very different views about it.

In the coming days, America will release new home sales, CB consumer confidence, preliminary GDP, pending home sales, unemployment claims, core PCE price index, Chicago PMI and ISM manufacturing PMI.

Technically what we see on the weekly chart may be a “Three black crows” pattern. This pattern is regarded as a sign of bearish reversal. Some short-term attempt to recover may be expected at the start of the new week. At the same time, the 200-week MA will now act as resistance at 93.37 ahead of 93.50 (50-day MA). Downside targets lie in the 92.60 area (October lows), 92.00 and 91.50.



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Trading plan for February 18

The market will be mostly driven by the risk-on sentiment after the positive news on trade negotiations between the US and China. Let’s consider the key levels for AUD/USD and AUD/NZD.

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