Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
AUD: bullish forecasts from Société Générale
2020-12-16 • Updated
Société Générale predicts that the Austrian dollar will rally up in 2021 due to the Australian fast recovery. Indeed, we cannot but agree that the global economy should steadily grow in the next year as vaccinations will start. As a result, the market sentiment will improve, and investors will stream their capitals into riskier assets like the AUD.
Australian growth supports AUD
Unlike the USA and European countries, Asia-Pacific countries have almost taken the virus under control. That’s why Société Générale anticipates that Australia’s GDP will return to its pre-pandemic GDP level by the second half of 2021. In comparison, other developed countries are expected to regain all current losses by the end of 2021 and 2022.
China’s fast rebound boosts AUD
The CNH and the AUD are positively correlated due to the close trade relations between countries. Although the China-Australian relationship worsened amid the coronavirus, it should improve during the next year as it’s beneficial for both sides. Elsewhere, Biden’s presidency implies a more rational approach to the US-China trade deal. That’s why global trade is now expected to boost in 2021.
AUD/USD has bounced off the resistance of 0.7580. If it drops below the intraday low of 0.7545, the way down to yesterday’s low of 0.7520 will be clear. Since the pair is moving in an uptrend, we can assume that after a short decline, it will reverse and rally up. The breakout of the resistance level of 0.7580 will drive the pair to the key psychological mark of 0.7600.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
China's economy is rocketing. On the other hand OPEC+ countries take the decision to cut the production. What will be the impact on the oil price?
Are you aware of the recent crackdown by the SEC on major cryptocurrency exchanges, Binance US and Coinbase? Surprisingly, savvy Bitcoin traders seem unfazed, as options-based implied volatility metrics indicate. It appears that the lawsuits were anticipated and already factored into the market. Implied volatility reflects investors' expectations of price turbulence, but little evidence of heightened concern exists.
Let's dive into the recent debt ceiling saga in the US and its implications for the economy, deficit, and inflation. The good news is that a new debt deal is on the horizon, saving us from a potential default on June 5. Phew! This deal will impact the economy by providing stability and avoiding a financial catastrophe.
Get ready for some suspense as the Bank of Canada faces a tough decision on whether to raise interest rates or keep them on hold. The resilient Canadian economy and the goal of curbing inflation further are at the heart of this dilemma. While some money markets and economists predict another rate hike, others believe the central bank should exercise caution and wait, hinting at a possible increase later in the summer.