2020-12-16 • Updated
Société Générale predicts that the Austrian dollar will rally up in 2021 due to the Australian fast recovery. Indeed, we cannot but agree that the global economy should steadily grow in the next year as vaccinations will start. As a result, the market sentiment will improve, and investors will stream their capitals into riskier assets like the AUD.
Unlike the USA and European countries, Asia-Pacific countries have almost taken the virus under control. That’s why Société Générale anticipates that Australia’s GDP will return to its pre-pandemic GDP level by the second half of 2021. In comparison, other developed countries are expected to regain all current losses by the end of 2021 and 2022.
The CNH and the AUD are positively correlated due to the close trade relations between countries. Although the China-Australian relationship worsened amid the coronavirus, it should improve during the next year as it’s beneficial for both sides. Elsewhere, Biden’s presidency implies a more rational approach to the US-China trade deal. That’s why global trade is now expected to boost in 2021.
AUD/USD has bounced off the resistance of 0.7580. If it drops below the intraday low of 0.7545, the way down to yesterday’s low of 0.7520 will be clear. Since the pair is moving in an uptrend, we can assume that after a short decline, it will reverse and rally up. The breakout of the resistance level of 0.7580 will drive the pair to the key psychological mark of 0.7600.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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