2020-04-07 • Updated
The RBA left the interest rate at 0.25% today. As such, it is a record low level. In the context of the situation, it is natural as seen as a response to the damage inflicted by the virus. In fact, given the severity and uncertainty of the economic fallout still yet to evaluate, it may come as a sign of strength that the rate was not decreased further.
China reports no new mortal cases and is clearly on the way out of the pandemic. Consequently, it’s economy is gradually recovering and gaining the moment it lost three months ago. For Australia, that is vital given the close trade relationship it has with China. Although Australia itself is not yet through the crisis, the improved position of its main trade partners improves its own economic outlook and bring some positive notes to its currency.
As we have seen before, the best barometer for the mood of the AUD is the JPY. Generally, AUD behaves in a similar manner to all its counterparts in the Forex market, but the Japanese yen makes it much more visible than, say, against the USD, in many cases. So as we have said, the improving position of the AUD is clearly visible on the chart. However, the upward dynamics should also be ascribed to the weakening of the JPY. Will the resistance of 68.81 be crossed? Very possibly, especially given the recent announcement of a state of emergency in Japan. That doesn’t change the strategic layout though. That’s why keep in mind that the current picture of the AUD climbing further is merely an effort of this currency to inch above the 10-year low it is in. In other words, the outlook for the AUD is positive in the short-term. In the long-term, there are miles to go to reverse a heavy outlook for the Australian dollar.
Resistance: 68.81
Support: 64.75
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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