Bearish Scenario: Sales below 78.99 with TP1: 77.93, TP2: 77.45, and upon its breakout TP3: 76.56 and TP4: 75.70 Bullish Scenario: Purchases above 78.00 (wait for a pullback to this area) with TP1: 1679.00 (uncovered POC*), TP2: 79.33, and TP3: 79.66 intraday
EUR: bullish forecasts from Crédit Agricole
2020-12-15 • Updated
Strategists at Crédit Agricole expect the USD will continue falling, while the EUR will keep rising in the coming months. The bank named the greenback as the largest loser from the global recovery. Indeed, the US dollar has been dipping for almost half a year already. As a result, EUR/USD has broken through the key psychological level of 1.2000. It’s a natural thing that investors take out their capital from safe-havens assets such as the USD and flow them into assets with higher returns as the global economy is entering the new growth phase.
Undervalued EUR vs overvalued USD
Crédit Agricole considers that the greenback is overvalued against its major peers as the USA has fiscal and trade deficit. “Global investors could thus start hedging against future depreciation of the currency and sell the USD forward”. At the same time, Crédit Agricole models demonstrate that the euro is undervalued.
According to Crédit Agricole, "recovering global growth and trade will lead to increased selling of USD by global corporates as they convert their growing exports proceeds into their home currencies”. They foresee EUR/USD to reach 1.2500.
EUR/USD is touching the 50-period moving average, which has been supporting the pair since the start of November. Therefore, the price is unlikely to break down, but if it does, the support zone of the recent lows of 1.2100-1.2110 will limit the further falling. When EUR/USD approaches the resistance of 1.2170, it may meet the fresh selloff ahead of the breakout. The next resistance will be at 1.2200.
Amid uncertainty driven by geopolitical events, oil prices surged to record highs. However, a correction in oil prices is observed with a gradual improvement in the situation in the Middle East and an increase in demand. The question facing investors is whether there are prerequisites for further price growth or if everything depends on the dynamics of the political landscape. In this article, we will explore the impact of recent events on the global oil market and the prospects for developing this crucial commodity sector.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Bullish Scenario: Buys above 17910 with TP:18098.07, TP2:18277, and TP3: 18415 Bearish Scenario: Sells below 17850 with TP1:17730, TP2: 17700
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