2020-07-13 • Updated
The pair failed to move in one direction for more than two days in three weeks. How to trade it?
The Euro has started the week with the positive footing. Then it dropped, but met the support at 1.1300 and bounced back. Now it’s moving upward.
However, if we look at the weekly chart, we will notice that it will meet soon the strong resistance at the 200-week moving average at 1.1330. EUR/USD has been unable to close above this level for over a year. If EUR/USD breaks it through, bulls will win and the pair may surge higher to the next resistance at 1.1366. Support levels are 1.1300 and 1.1269.
There is no big news today that can make EUR/USD volatile. We can assume that the current risk-on sentiment is likely to drive the Euro higher. Only on Thursday the EUR will get the fresh stimulus after the ECB statement. The single currency highly depends on the central banks’ economic guidelines. If the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde gives the optimistic outlook and calls for clear governments’ actions, it will push the Euro higher. In opposite if the economic forecast is dire and hopeless, the Euro will decrease.
Also, the USA imposed new tariffs on French imports in a response to the French digital services’ tax. If European-American tensions deteriorate, it may weigh on the Euro.
If we compare coronavirus rates in both Europe and the USA, the United Sates has grimmer situation. As a result, it will allow the EU economic activity to recover faster. This will be positive for the Euro.
To sum up, look for the break out above the 1.3300 and go long. Otherwise, if the pair fails to cross this level, go short. Remember to follow the ECB statement this Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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