2019-11-11 • Updated
EUR/USD hit 1.1173 level overnight amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s future following the reports that he tried to interfere with a federal investigation (that he obstructed justice). Some of the Republicans and Democrats called on Wednesday for an independent probe for possible collusion between Trump’s election campaign and Russian authorities. As a result, a former chief Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate the following case.
The euro rally has started following the final round of the French presidential elections as soon as hedge funds and investors opened some fresh long positions. European data continues to be broadly positive, reinforced with German ZEW Economic sentiment index rising to 20.6 from 19.5, Eurozone trade balance figures coming with a surplus, and flat CPI figures. Abating political risk and strong economic fundamentals gave a rise to speculation that the ECB will slightly alter its current dovish guidance at its June meeting by removing the word “or lower” from the pledge to stay on hold or adopt lower rate for the upcoming future.
The recent forecasts from major banks are almost all bullish on the euro.
ABN AMRO Bank gives 5 reasons for the further extension of the recent euro gains.
ING Bank analysts also believe that euro will be supported in the near-term as investors:
Strategists from Danske bank note that the euro lost its shine in the early trades of May 18. EUR/USD looks extremely oversold from the technical view, that is why prices started sliding back. Despite the following decline, Danske analysts are still bullish on EUR/USD. They believe that the pair might have further legs in coming days due to the actions of speculators.
Commerzbank is also long the EUR/USD. It believes that the euro has potential to climb towards 1.1300. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.1200 (23.6% Fibo retracement level of the move down from the 2014 peak at 1.3995).
ANZ FX Research analysts are the only ones who are still skeptical about the further EUR appreciations. They argue that the current strengthening of the single currency is short lived. In the medium term, it is poised to weakening as the ECB may be very slow to change its policy direction pointing out at an absence of underlying inflation and wage pressures.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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