Euro soared amid White House turmoil. Will be there a continuation of the rally?

Euro soared amid White House turmoil. Will be there a continuation of the rally?

2019-11-11 • Updated

EUR/USD hit 1.1173 level overnight amid concerns over US President Donald Trump’s future following the reports that he tried to interfere with a federal investigation (that he obstructed justice). Some of the Republicans and Democrats called on Wednesday for an independent probe for possible collusion between Trump’s election campaign and Russian authorities. As a result, a former chief Robert Mueller was appointed to investigate the following case.

The euro rally has started following the final round of the French presidential elections as soon as hedge funds and investors opened some fresh long positions. European data continues to be broadly positive, reinforced with German ZEW Economic sentiment index rising to 20.6 from 19.5, Eurozone trade balance figures coming with a surplus, and flat CPI figures. Abating political risk and strong economic fundamentals gave a rise to speculation that the ECB will slightly alter its current dovish guidance at its June meeting by removing the word “or lower” from the pledge to stay on hold or adopt lower rate for the upcoming future.

The recent forecasts from major banks are almost all bullish on the euro.

ABN AMRO Bank gives 5 reasons for the further extension of the recent euro gains.

  1. Fed’s rate hike in June is fully discounted and hike in September is only 50% priced in.
  2. The market participants are waiting for the ECB’s announcement of QE taper that should support the euro in the future.
  3. The allegations against Trump will still present in the headlines. The end of the reflation trade.
  4. More squaring of net-long USD positions.
  5. The technical picture has become more negative. US dollar index moved below the 200-da MA and EUR/USD above this technical level.

ING Bank analysts also believe that euro will be supported in the near-term as investors:

  • Try to determine the true value of the euro (whether it is still undervalued);
  • Prepare for a shift in the ECB’s monetary policy stance from extremely dovish to a more hawkish/neutral.
  • Use the euro as a safe haven to hedge Trump political risk.

Strategists from Danske bank note that the euro lost its shine in the early trades of May 18. EUR/USD looks extremely oversold from the technical view, that is why prices started sliding back. Despite the following decline, Danske analysts are still bullish on EUR/USD. They believe that the pair might have further legs in coming days due to the actions of speculators.

Commerzbank is also long the EUR/USD. It believes that the euro has potential to climb towards 1.1300. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.1200 (23.6% Fibo retracement level of the move down from the 2014 peak at 1.3995).  

ANZ FX Research analysts are the only ones who are still skeptical about the further EUR appreciations. They argue that the current strengthening of the single currency is short lived. In the medium term, it is poised to weakening as the ECB may be very slow to change its policy direction pointing out at an absence of underlying inflation and wage pressures.

 

 

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