2020-10-16 • Updated
The whole day the market sentiment has remained risk-off amid a stalemate over fiscal stimulus. The US economy needs it now, especially households and small businesses. However, officials continue discussing its amount and ways of spending it as upcoming elections increased tensions.
Elsewhere, new virus cases are steadily rising, forcing countries to impose stricter restrictions. All news concerning Covid-19 and vaccine tend to have a huge impact on the market. On the Brexit front – total uncertainty. As a result, investors poured their capital into safe-haven assets such as the USD and the JPY. It looks like the yen is outperforming.
The US core retail sales came out better than analysts expected, which helped the USD to rise briefly. However, USD/JPY has turned to the downside again. Let’s look at the charts.
On the daily chart, we can see the formation of the bearish – descending triangle pattern. The move below the key psychological mark of 105.00 will drive the pair down to the significant support of 104.50. USD/JPY has failed to cross it a few times, so we can expect the price to bounce off it briefly. The breakout below this level will drive the pair to the next support of 104.00. Resistance levels are 105.70 and 106.05.
Elsewhere, if we look at the 4-hour chart, we’ll notice the dead cross: the 50-period moving average has crossed the 200-period moving average upside down. In this timeframe, we can even set the closer support at 105.15. The move above it will open doors towards 105.00.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.
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