As I earlier indicated in my article this week, I am expecting an upward push from the Dollar as a reaction from the Demand zone I have marked out. The PPI release earlier moved prices a bit but lacked sufficient momentum to cause a significant break of structure - and thus, no change of trend.
Greatest sell-off of Australian Dollar
2021-09-08 • Updated
The Australian central bank claimed that it would indeed cut asset purchases in September as the bank initially planned and the markets expected. However, the next review of the quantitative easing program would be moved from November 2021 to February 2022.
What is important?
It signaled that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) forecasted a slowdown in the economic recovery amid continuing lockdowns across the country. The RBA’s governor said that interest rates are likely to stay at the record lows of 0.10% until at least 2024. This would put the RBA behind the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, which are expected to hike rates earlier. If it is the case, the AUD will lose against the BOE and Fed.
The RBA’s decision pressed the Australian dollar down. However, it’s not the only factor that drove the Aussie down. The overall market sentiment has changed to risk-off today and triggered the sell-off of riskier assets including the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD has failed to cross the 38.2% Fibonacci level of 0.7450 and has broken below the support line of 0.7400. Thus, the way down to the 50-day moving average (the red line) of 0.7370 is open. The pair may stop ahead of this support level and even reverse up back up to 0.7400. However, if it manages to cross this moving average, the aussie may fall to the 23.6% Fibonacci level of 0.7320.
Markets are pricing Feds 75-basis-points rate hike. Thus, all attention will be drawn to Powell's rhetoric regarding the next decision at the December 14 meeting. How will it affect the USD?
XBRUSD and XTIUSD might experience massive volatility due to the Chinese GDP release on Tuesday, October 18.
The views here are solely based on Technical Analysis techniques using my personal Smart Money approach. Hence, it is important to understand that the trading of CFDs comes at a risk; if not properly managed, you may lose all of your trading capital. To avoid costly mistakes while you look to trade these opportunities, be sure to do your own due diligence and manage your risk appropriately.
Even though we've only witnessed sluggish movements from the Dollar over the past few weeks, the general idea and bias still seem intact and untampered. The bullish impulse however can be seen as "searching for support".
Suddenly, the US Dollar Index fell 6.70% over the last two weeks, marking the biggest decrease in the currency since 2020.