After the bullish start of the year, the rand has started to weaken since the last Thursday. Let’s point out the main factors affecting the ZAR and set the key levels for this week’s trading.
Morning brief for July 13
The Canadian dollar is the major beneficiary in FX markets after the Bank of Canada raised its rates by 0.25% to 0.75% and slightly upgraded its growth forecasts. There was not even a hint for dovishness. So, the loonie surged on the rate announcement. USD/CAD was down 1.2676 from Wednesday’s opening of 1.2913. Not it trades a little bit higher from yesterday’s low at 1.2743. On the upside, there is solid resistance at 1.2820. The odds for a drop to lower levels are not high. It seems that pair is entering into the consolidation phase.
US yields and the dollar were generally lower after Janet Yellen said the Fed won’t rush to tighten monetary policy while testifying to the Congress. Markets noted that Yellen is now less sure that inflation on track towards the Fed’s target. She doesn’t know how inflation will further respond to the Fed’s tightening measures. The Fed’s concerns about the current inflation rates suggest that there were downside risks to its forward guidance.
The euro was one of the few currencies that lost out yesterday against the USD. It dipped to 1.1390. In Tokyo morning, EUR/USD managed to recoup some of its earlier losses having risen to 1.1440. In the meanwhile, it will likely continue to trade choppily within the range of 1.1320 – 1.1490.
USD/JPY was a great mover in the past few sessions. After rising briefly above 113.50 dropped harshly below 113. While the immediate bias is tilted to downside we don’t expect significant downfall from the current levels. Most likely, the pair will be trading sideways.
Aussie was one of the standout winners of yesterday’s session. It spiked to 0.7685. In the Asian session, it extended its gains to 0.7695.
Sterling rose to 1.2895, notwithstanding the exit stage left of Scottish tennis player from Wimbledon, due to the stronger-than expected unemployment rate (jobless rate is up from 1.8) and earning data.
Oil prices skipped some points overnight as OPEC said its expected demand for its crude will likely decline next year as its rivals increase their production despite the efforts to curb oil glut.
What is coming up:
- Yellen will continue testifying Thursday.
- US producer price index and unemployment claims are due at 3:30 pm (MT time).
- The Congressional Budget office is poised to release its analysis of President Trump’s 2018 fiscal year budget. It is coming under fire from Trump administration, inevitably given the conservative (realistic?) growth assumptions that the CBO uses to do the fiscal maths.
- Charles Evans and Lael Brainard are set to speak later today. Both of them on the dovish side of the Fed’s hawk- dove spectrum (additional losses for the USD?).
If we look at the daily charts of the US dollar index and the USD/JPY pair, we will see a misleading trend.
Britain has to leave the European Union in 66 days. Will it leave with a trade deal (good for the GBP) or without one (bad for the GBP)?
The market is likely going to continue declining. The main intraday target is the next support at 1.1526 - 1.1508...
Bullish Ichimoku Cloud with horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen with horizontal lines; the market is under strong resistance and prices entered into the channel Tenkan-Kijun.
AUD/CAD falling inside impulse waves 3 and (C) Next sell target - 0…