Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Morning brief for July 13
2019-11-11 • Updated
The Canadian dollar is the major beneficiary in FX markets after the Bank of Canada raised its rates by 0.25% to 0.75% and slightly upgraded its growth forecasts. There was not even a hint for dovishness. So, the loonie surged on the rate announcement. USD/CAD was down 1.2676 from Wednesday’s opening of 1.2913. Not it trades a little bit higher from yesterday’s low at 1.2743. On the upside, there is solid resistance at 1.2820. The odds for a drop to lower levels are not high. It seems that pair is entering into the consolidation phase.
US yields and the dollar were generally lower after Janet Yellen said the Fed won’t rush to tighten monetary policy while testifying to the Congress. Markets noted that Yellen is now less sure that inflation on track towards the Fed’s target. She doesn’t know how inflation will further respond to the Fed’s tightening measures. The Fed’s concerns about the current inflation rates suggest that there were downside risks to its forward guidance.
The euro was one of the few currencies that lost out yesterday against the USD. It dipped to 1.1390. In Tokyo morning, EUR/USD managed to recoup some of its earlier losses having risen to 1.1440. In the meanwhile, it will likely continue to trade choppily within the range of 1.1320 – 1.1490.
USD/JPY was a great mover in the past few sessions. After rising briefly above 113.50 dropped harshly below 113. While the immediate bias is tilted to downside we don’t expect significant downfall from the current levels. Most likely, the pair will be trading sideways.
Aussie was one of the standout winners of yesterday’s session. It spiked to 0.7685. In the Asian session, it extended its gains to 0.7695.
Sterling rose to 1.2895, notwithstanding the exit stage left of Scottish tennis player from Wimbledon, due to the stronger-than expected unemployment rate (jobless rate is up from 1.8) and earning data.
Oil prices skipped some points overnight as OPEC said its expected demand for its crude will likely decline next year as its rivals increase their production despite the efforts to curb oil glut.
What is coming up:
- Yellen will continue testifying Thursday.
- US producer price index and unemployment claims are due at 3:30 pm (MT time).
- The Congressional Budget office is poised to release its analysis of President Trump’s 2018 fiscal year budget. It is coming under fire from Trump administration, inevitably given the conservative (realistic?) growth assumptions that the CBO uses to do the fiscal maths.
- Charles Evans and Lael Brainard are set to speak later today. Both of them on the dovish side of the Fed’s hawk- dove spectrum (additional losses for the USD?).
China's economy is rocketing. On the other hand OPEC+ countries take the decision to cut the production. What will be the impact on the oil price?
The EU plans to intervene in markets directly to curb rising energy costs, threatening to push the Euro area's economy into a deep recession.
Let's dive into the world of gold. Currently, the price of gold, represented by XAUUSD, is stuck in indecision, hovering around the $1,975 mark. The market is anxiously awaiting two important factors: the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the extension of the US debt ceiling.
Hey guys, this is the last full trading week in May, and many forward-looking individuals like myself are already preparing themselves to seize whatever opportunities June may have in store. On this note, I will review a few commodities that have satisfied my quest for swing-trading opportunities in the coming month. Follow me!
The Bank of England (BoE) has dramatically shifted its economic forecasts. They no longer expect a recession in the UK and have upgraded their growth projections. This year, the BoE predicts GDP growth of +0.25%, a significant improvement from previous expectations. Next year's forecast is even more optimistic, with a projected growth of 0.75%.