Why is oil's rally in danger?
Yes, oil prices are burning right now, and inflation is getting hotter along with it worldwide. However, the oil's bullish momentum is under threat.
Morning brief for June 5
2019-11-11 • Updated
The weekend terrorist attack in London was the main cause of price action in the early hours of the Asian session. The attacker rammed a van into pedestrians on London Bridge and stabbed passersby. The market reaction was subdued with just a small drop for GBP as dealers became more and more desensitized to the shocks knowing that whatever the effect they produce, the prices will eventually stabilize. Prime minister Theresa May Thursday’s general election will go ahead. Election polls are still narrowing significantly, with the recent print from Survation poll indicating May’s lead cut to one point over her Labour counterparts. But the poll results might be delusive; despite the growing support for Labour party in the big cities, the countryside people are still likely to vote for Conservatives.
GBP/USD dropped just slightly after another terrorist atrocity to 1.2850 from Friday’s high at 1.2920. From here, the pair will likely trade steadily within the range of 1.2800 – 1.3015.
The great move was noticed on the Brent oil futures chart. Prices surged after Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, and Bahrain cut their ties with Qatar, accusing the Gulf Arab state of supporting such Islamist fractions as the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamic State, and al-Qaeda. Qatar is not only a large oil supplier, it is also a greatest Arab supplier of liquefied natural gas and seller of condensate. The Brent futures are currently trading at $50.67 from Friday’s low at $48.95.
The US dollar regained its strength on Monday. It is higher against the yen. It seems the USD managed to recover disappointing labor market report out of the US. USD/JPY is now near 111.10. The current outlook is neutral if bears break 110.00 support. On the upside, there is a solid resistance at 111.25. Today, traders should be focused on the US non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders.
EUR/USD was trading lower at 1.2225 from Friday’s high at 1.2580 in the Asian session. In the short-term. There is a strong resistance at 1.3000, but it will unlikely be hit this week as market anticipate a less dovish message from ECB which is due on Thursday.
AUD/USD ticked higher in Tokyo morning due to the better than expected company operating profits and upbeat Caixin services PMI released from China. AUD/USD is trading above 0.7455. It seems that it is caught in a broad 0.7380 – 0.7490 consolidation range. We don’t anticipate greater moves from Aussie since the Reserve Bank of Australia will likely stay on hold and deliver a neutral statement tomorrow.
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