2021-11-11 • Updated
Market participants diminished their appetites for the USD and switched to high yielding currencies.
The yen was an absolute gainer in the Asian session. USD/JPY slumped to 111.65. Earlier this morning we’ve got BoJ’s January meeting minutes. Most of the members that price momentum is not firm yet; the BoJ might start raising its rates in response to surging treasury yields. It will be the first stage of QQE tapering. Also, there was news on the wires of another North Korea missile launch (apparently, it was failed). But the market’s response was limited.
Aussie lost its ground vis-à-vis its American counterpart. AUD/USD slid to 0.7660. it seems that the upward pressure post-FOMC has eased off. Most likely, the Australian dollar will be trading sideways in the range of 0.7600 – 0.7730.
Kiwi edged down to 0.7035 on the session. Today’s focus will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement. Analysts expect the RBNZ to leave its rates unchanged and refuse to recourse to further easing. The immediate resistance on the upside lies at around 0.7115. Falling commodity prices and dovish tone of the meeting would send NZD to negative area towards the nearest supports at 0.7010 and 0.6980.
GBP/USD spiked to 1.2475 overnight after the strong release of the UK CPI data and indication of the exact data of Article 50 trigger. CPI figures pushed up through the BoE’s target of 2.0$. It was 2.3% (the market expected 2.1% print). Sterling was already surging into the report, afterward, it got an additional boost. There is no economic data for the pound on the agenda. USD dynamic will continue to determine GBP/USD path without any catalyst from the UK.
EUR/USD surged to 1.0815 but failed to stand there for long after the buying dried up. In the early hours of Tokyo morning, the euro slipped to 1.0800. Fed’s Loretta Mester was speaking. Her speech wasn’t really upbringing for USD watchers as she underlined that there is no urgency to lift rates quicker than is currently priced in. The greenback will likely be willing to consolidate within the narrow range of 1.0820-1.0750 this week. On the downside, there are several supports at 1.0775, 1.0745.
USD/CAD moved to 1.3375. Loonie felt weak despite yesterday’s upbeat economic data (Canadian retail sales). Today’s focus will be on the gov council member Schembri’s speech. On the upside, there is still a sturdy resistance at 1.3420. The immediate support lies near the 100-day MA at 1.3300.
Oil prices posted new lows having slid to $50.60 after industry estimates (API) showed a sharp increase in US inventories. A launch of the North Korean missile was an additional headwind for oil futures.
China has issued new oil product export quotas to allow oil companies to send surplus barrels overseas, particularly Sinopec, which has the highest volume among quota holders. While the exact quota volume remains undisclosed, oil companies are forecasted to export approximately 3.5 million metric tons of clean oil products in September, a 10% increase from August.
Thanks to the incredible advancements in horizontal drilling and fracking technology, the United States has experienced a mind-blowing shale revolution. They've become the heavyweight champion of crude oil production, leaving Saudi Arabia and Russia in the dust. They even turned the tables and became net exporters of refined petroleum products in 2011.
Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Welcome to October, the tenth month of 2023. For this installment of What to Trade, I have handpicked a few of my favorite trade ideas for the month. Let’s go over a few of them.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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