The oil market is always highly volatile.
Morning brief for March 22
Market participants diminished their appetites for the USD and switched to high yielding currencies.
The yen was an absolute gainer in the Asian session. USD/JPY slumped to 111.65. Earlier this morning we’ve got BoJ’s January meeting minutes. Most of the members that price momentum is not firm yet; the BoJ might start raising its rates in response to surging treasury yields. It will be the first stage of QQE tapering. Also, there was news on the wires of another North Korea missile launch (apparently, it was failed). But the market’s response was limited.
Aussie lost its ground vis-à-vis its American counterpart. AUD/USD slid to 0.7660. it seems that the upward pressure post-FOMC has eased off. Most likely, the Australian dollar will be trading sideways in the range of 0.7600 – 0.7730.
Kiwi edged down to 0.7035 on the session. Today’s focus will be on the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cash rate announcement. Analysts expect the RBNZ to leave its rates unchanged and refuse to recourse to further easing. The immediate resistance on the upside lies at around 0.7115. Falling commodity prices and dovish tone of the meeting would send NZD to negative area towards the nearest supports at 0.7010 and 0.6980.
GBP/USD spiked to 1.2475 overnight after the strong release of the UK CPI data and indication of the exact data of Article 50 trigger. CPI figures pushed up through the BoE’s target of 2.0$. It was 2.3% (the market expected 2.1% print). Sterling was already surging into the report, afterward, it got an additional boost. There is no economic data for the pound on the agenda. USD dynamic will continue to determine GBP/USD path without any catalyst from the UK.
EUR/USD surged to 1.0815 but failed to stand there for long after the buying dried up. In the early hours of Tokyo morning, the euro slipped to 1.0800. Fed’s Loretta Mester was speaking. Her speech wasn’t really upbringing for USD watchers as she underlined that there is no urgency to lift rates quicker than is currently priced in. The greenback will likely be willing to consolidate within the narrow range of 1.0820-1.0750 this week. On the downside, there are several supports at 1.0775, 1.0745.
USD/CAD moved to 1.3375. Loonie felt weak despite yesterday’s upbeat economic data (Canadian retail sales). Today’s focus will be on the gov council member Schembri’s speech. On the upside, there is still a sturdy resistance at 1.3420. The immediate support lies near the 100-day MA at 1.3300.
Oil prices posted new lows having slid to $50.60 after industry estimates (API) showed a sharp increase in US inventories. A launch of the North Korean missile was an additional headwind for oil futures.
Narrowing bearish Ichimoku Cloud with rising Senkou Span A; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen, but rising Tenkan-sen; the bulls could breakout the Kijun’s resistance.
GBP/JPY broke support level 141…
Recommendation: BUY 0,9765 SL 0,971 TP1 0,985 TP2 0,9895…