The Battle for Oil. OPEC Strikes Back
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Morning brief for March 27
2019-11-11 • Updated
The US dollar ran out of steam in the Tokyo morning. It has weakened significantly against a basket currencies. The main fundamental factor that fueled USD sell-off was President Donald Trump’s failure to replace the 2010 Affordable Care Act (commonly known as Obamacare). The defeat on the US healthcare legislation raised investors’ concerns over Mr. Trump’s ability to push through other policies suggested by his administration. US political focus now shifts to long-awaited tax reform, arguably a more important piece of legislation (especially for equity markets).
EUR/USD jumped to 1.0845 in the opening hours of Asian session ripping through 1.0825/30 hurdles in its path. A bullish momentum is still intact. The euro may rise towards the next resistance lines at 1.0870/1.0875. One of the fundamental factors that boosted EUR buying was a big win of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservative in a regional election held at the weekend. Exit polling showed that CDU (Merkel’s party) won 40.1%. it’s a great result in the countdown to the parliamentary elections scheduled for September 24, 2017. In the economic front, there will be German Ifo Business climate. The consensus forecast shows an increase. The upbeat data will send the euro higher.
Aussie fell to 0.7630 against the greenback in today’s session. The upper border of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe serves as a sturdy support for the prices. AUD may weaken further towards 0.7605, 0.7545 unless it manages to reclaim 0.7700.
Kiwi surged to 0.7055 in the morning. It has all chance to rise further towards the nearest hurdles at 0.7088, 0.7115 (the lower border of Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe). The economic calendar is empty for NZD/USD today.
The British pound spiked to 1.2530 on the USD weakness resulted from the rejection of the Trumpcare bill. A focus shifted to tax reforms now. They will likely fill a lot of headlines ahead of March 29 (the Brexit deadline). On Wednesday, the UK PM Theresa May will trigger Article 50. A European response is expected within 48 hours thereafter.
USD/CAD was trading lower at the end of the Asian session. The prices are hovering around the 1.3330 at the present moment. On the downside, there is a strong support lying at 1.3280. The immediate resistance can be found at 1.3410. Oil prices lowered to $50.45 on the session as investors saw that OPEC-led output cuts don’t reduce the US crude oil inventories. At the weekend meeting ministers from OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers agreed to review the question of whether the output cut deal should be extended by six months or not.
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