Why is oil's rally in danger?
Yes, oil prices are burning right now, and inflation is getting hotter along with it worldwide. However, the oil's bullish momentum is under threat.
Morning brief for May 26
2019-11-11 • Updated
Brent futures dropped to $51.00 from $54.65 overnight after OPEC and some non-OPEC producers agreed to extend output cuts until the end of the first quarter of 2018. Market participants expected longer and deeper cuts to curb a global oil glut. So, oil prices tumbled following the announcement. Prior they rose higher being driven by the talk around the extension of the supply cuts. This was the case of buying the rumor and selling the fact.
GBP slumped below 1.2880 from 1.3015 after a YouGov poll showed that the gap between the two major UK parties is narrowing as we approach the official date of elections – June 8 (the poll indicated that Labour Party is within 5 points of Theresa May’s Conservatives). Further on, we expect a move towards 1.2830 on the GBP/USD technical chart. A break of the following level may send prices lower towards 1.2775.
Aussie was trading lower at 0.7428 because of the strengthening USD and falling iron ore prices. AUD/USD will likely consolidate within the range of 0.7380- 0.7480 in the short-term.
The yen managed to find some strength today despite the strong USD. Japan’s headline inflation release in Tokyo morning was in line with expectations. Core figures hit its best level since April 2015. But Japanese core-core inflation is still subdued (it is at zero % level now). The BOJ pledged to keep its current accommodative policy until inflation figures hit 2%. USD/JPY is trading at 111.45 The yen has a scope of extension of its gains toward 110.20. On the upside, we see a strong resistance at 112.50 (near 100-day MA).
EUR/USD is trading lower in the Asian session at 1.2000 from yesterday’s high at 1.2505. The recent comments from ECB President Mario Draghi about bank’s commitment to full implementation of its QE program put pressure on the single currency. Investors were disappointed with ECB refusing to wind down its bond purchase program at previous meetings. Today’s focus will be on the US economic data –durable goods orders (expected to rise in April), Revised UoM Consumer sentiment and most importantly preliminary GDP for the first quarter of 2017.
USD/CAD spiked to 1.3495 overnight as OPEC members failed to commit to longer and deeper cuts. Brent oil futures is trading at 51.20 from yesterday’s high at $54.67 downgrading outlook for Loonie.
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