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2022-08-12 • Updated
The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years. This rollercoaster has baffled markets, investors, and traders. The main reasons for such dynamics were geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy. In the last two years, oil traded as cheaply as $19 a barrel - or at minus levels if you're looking at WTI futures - and it went up to $139.
We haven't seen such huge swings in oil prices since the 2008 financial crisis when oil collapsed from $150 to less than $40. The collapse was due to the fears of a global recession, which led to a drop in oil demand as in our current situation.
The result was a sharp rise in inflation amid sluggish demand, slowing economic growth, and growing recession fears.
Oil prices may drop to $90 a barrel if the world's largest oil consumers continue to struggle with high inflation and low growth.
Oil may drop below $90 and stay around this range for a while. Economic woes in the world's two largest economies will affect oil demand. The effects will, of course, be seen on Brent and US WTI prices.
At the same time, oil demand may find some support from record high natural gas prices, especially in Europe. That will prompt consumers and factories to switch to oil-fueled generation to survive the brutal winter ahead. In addition, the oil supply is not expanding and may even face problems in the coming period as oil demand increases in the winter.
Supply concerns are expected to escalate as winter approaches, as EU sanctions banning sea imports of Russian crude and oil products are set to take effect on December 5. The modest increase approved by the OPEC+ of 100,000 barrels per day in September will not be enough to meet the increased demand.
Technically, Brent (XBRUSD) may drop to 80.00 if it breaks below $90 and settles below that level.
The EU plans to intervene in markets directly to curb rising energy costs, threatening to push the Euro area's economy into a deep recession.
US oil exports reached a record last week at five million barrels a day, according to Energy Information Administration data…
The oil prices rally and world central banks’ dovish monetary policy caused by the Covid-19 pandemic were the main reasons for current inflation growth…
In the middle of September 2022, the Canadian dollar has fallen to a 2-year low against the USD
The US dollar index has all chances of reaching the 2000s high of 120.00.
The Consumer Price Index announcement by Statistics Canada is set for release in a few hours will reveal the state of inflation in the Canadian economy
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