Yes, oil prices are burning right now, and inflation is getting hotter along with it worldwide. However, the oil's bullish momentum is under threat.
Oil surged amid soft dollar
2021-05-27 • Updated
Oil is edging higher due to the overall risk-on sentiment and a weaker US dollar, despite rising cases in India. India is one of the main oil importers, and it continues to report more than 300 000 infections every day. This year, oil has been boosted by the vaccine rollout, but some local coronavirus outbreaks and concerns over inflation limited its gains.
Besides, OPEC on Tuesday gave a strong outlook on the global recovery in oil demand in 2021 due to the growth in China and the United States, which OPEC believes outweighs the coronavirus crisis in India. As a result, the OPEC members have decided to gradually ease oil production cuts.
Let’s discuss oil on the example of UK Brent oil (XBR/USD). The asset has been moving inside the ascending channel since late March. Pay attention to how the price has reversed up from the lower trend line: over and over again. Thus, this level acts as strong support for oil, and as we expected it has bounced off it today again. The way up to $70.00 a barrel is clear now. It’s a psychological mark, which oil is likely to struggle to cross on the first try. However, sooner or later it may cross it as well and rally up further and even beat this year’s high of $71.00. In the opposite scenario, the move below the 50-day moving average of $65.60 will press oil down to a late April low of $64.00.
A month after Russia invaded Ukraine, oil markets are still more volatile than ever, with little clarity on how the sanctions will affect Russian crude production as well as global oil demand.
Oil markets were under great pressure amid increased demand and falling supply. OPEC+ is unable or unwilling to achieve its self-imposed production targets and insists on limiting production increases by 400,000 barrels per day despite rising prices.
What happened? US stocks ended sharply higher on Thursday, May 27, after a 7-week losing streak…
Next week, we expect the BOC rate statement, the OPEC+ meeting, and the Nonfarm payrolls release. Let's look at the opportunities in detail!
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