Oil prices rebounded slightly on Friday but are still expected to show losses for the week due to concerns about slowing growth in the US and China. US crude futures rose 2.7% to $70.41 per barrel, while the Brent contract increased by 2.5% to $74.33 per barrel.
Optimistic forecasts for China’s recovery
2020-06-24 • Updated
China was the first country that entered the coronavirus crisis, that’s why it should be the first out. However, the recent resurgence of new infections in Beijing made some investors worry about the second round of downturn. Today new virus cases decreased sharply. Let’s see how economists changed their predictions for the China’s rebound.
Most analysts upgraded their projections for the Chinese economic growth. They increased their forecast for GDP from 1.2% to 1.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier, according to the Bloomberg’s survey. Aidan Yao, senior economist at AXA SA in Hong Kong, said:
“With industrial production and services output both resuming growth, we now expect a positive GDP growth print for the second quarter”.
It seemed that the second largest economy may avoid the full-year recession after the historic contraction by 6.8% in the first quarter.
However, not every analyst has so optimistic prospects. The main reason of concerns is the reduced consumption. Many people lost their jobs and others had pay cuts. It will take a lot of time for most people to find new jobs. The central bank assured that it would expand its support measures to boost the domestic demand. It would offer interest-payment holidays and more credits to businesses. Moreover, economists anticipate that the People’s Bank of China will extend benefits for banks: decrease reserve ratios to 11.5% from 12.5%. However, it may be not sufficient enough. According to CBB International, most significant indicators of economic health such as manufacturing outputs, capital expenditures and retail sales are still well below pre-crisis levels. At the same time, Bloomberg strategists are confident that the industrial output and fixed-asset investments will grow in the next quarter.
What does it mean for a trader?
Since the Chinese economy is the second-largest world economy, investors will look closely at the speed of Chinese recovery to understand how much time it will take for the global economy to return to pre-crisis levels. Moreover, the US dollar has shown the recent downward trend. The combination of growing Chinese economy and the weak US dollar will push the Chinese yuan upward.
The USD/CNH has been declining sharply since the end of May and set a strong bearish trend. Then, it entered the horizontal corridor in a range between 7.0525 and 7.0920 at the beginning of June. Most analysts have bearish prospects for this pair. The move below the support at 7.0525 will push the price even lower to 7.045 where the 200-day moving average lies. Otherwise, if the price crosses the resistance at 7.0920, it may jump to 7.100 at the 50-day moving average. Follow news further and join the market momentum!
China's economy is rocketing. On the other hand OPEC+ countries take the decision to cut the production. What will be the impact on the oil price?
The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.
Let's dive into the world of gold. Currently, the price of gold, represented by XAUUSD, is stuck in indecision, hovering around the $1,975 mark. The market is anxiously awaiting two important factors: the release of the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes and the extension of the US debt ceiling.
Hey guys, this is the last full trading week in May, and many forward-looking individuals like myself are already preparing themselves to seize whatever opportunities June may have in store. On this note, I will review a few commodities that have satisfied my quest for swing-trading opportunities in the coming month. Follow me!
The Bank of England (BoE) has dramatically shifted its economic forecasts. They no longer expect a recession in the UK and have upgraded their growth projections. This year, the BoE predicts GDP growth of +0.25%, a significant improvement from previous expectations. Next year's forecast is even more optimistic, with a projected growth of 0.75%.