Why is oil's rally in danger?
Yes, oil prices are burning right now, and inflation is getting hotter along with it worldwide. However, the oil's bullish momentum is under threat.
RBA Sticks to Tapering Plan
2021-08-03 • Updated
4H Chart
Daily Chart
The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep the current policy unchanged as widely expected. However, and against all odds, the bank took the first steps toward winding back emergency monetary stimulus for an economy that’s exceeded forecasts. The BRA made this move even though many saw the bank hinting for a possible increase in asset purchases amid partial lockdown in parts of the county due to the high rate of covid19 cases. Yet, the plan to taper by 1B in September could be a message that the RBA is seeing some inflation pressure on the horizon. In the meantime, AUD/USD is still in a retracement mode, which may target 0.7470 and 0.7530’s before the downside trend resumes. Therefore, I would long some AUD/USD around here 0.7380’s with a stop at today’s low only.
| S3 | S2 | S1 | Pivot | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 0.7252 | 0.7305 | 7333 | 0.7358 | 0.7386 | 0.7411 | 0.7464 |
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Oil markets were under great pressure amid increased demand and falling supply. OPEC+ is unable or unwilling to achieve its self-imposed production targets and insists on limiting production increases by 400,000 barrels per day despite rising prices.
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