China's economy is rocketing. On the other hand OPEC+ countries take the decision to cut the production. What will be the impact on the oil price?
Summer starts with bullish ride in the US stock market
2021-06-01 • Updated
The first day of summer is here! What was May like for the US stock indices? And, most importantly, what should we expect next?
Waves of cautiousness
Last month, the market was swinging between the risk-on and the risk-off. On the one hand, a concern around surging inflation was the main factor driving the American indices down last month. For example, the US Core PCE Index, one of the Fed’s favorite measures of inflation, increased by 0.7% in April to the highest level since 1992. Investors worry that massive injections of liquidity will keep the inflation pressures high for a prolonged time. Despite this uncertainty, the Fed members still see the rise of this indicator as temporary. Fed’s opinion seems controversial to some investors. As a result, the indices remained pressed in May.
On the other hand, indices could not avoid a fast vaccination pace in the United States combined with the economic reopening. As the monetary policy in the US remains loose, the massive capital inflows push the American stock gauges to new highs.
If we look at the monthly chart of S&P500, we can see that May’s candlestick is a Doji one. This is a warning sign for traders. However, given to existing fundamentals, the retest of 4240 and the breakout to the next high of 4300 are possible.
As for NASDAQ, the overall picture on the monthly chart was not so bright, as the index dropped below 13,000. By the end of the month, it has managed to recover and reached the resistance of 13,740. The next obstacle for bulls will lie at 13,900.
This month, we need to stay extremely focused on the US inflation and speeches by the Fed members. If nothing changes, we may see new highs of the indices above and the pullback afterwards.
The past two years have seen the biggest swings in oil prices in 14 years, which have baffled markets, investors, and traders due to geopolitical tensions and the shift towards clean energy.
After months of pressure from the White House, Saudi Arabia relented and agreed with other OPEC+ members to increase production.
The past several weeks have been a real triumph for the bulls in the oil market. The Brent spot price grew by 8.5% during the last month.
Gold prices are rising for three consecutive days ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision, which is expected to remain unchanged due to declining inflation and a positive economic outlook. Investors are keen on the Fed's interest rate guidance, fearing a hawkish stance that could trigger market risk aversion.
Amid concerns of a Chinese economic slowdown, reports of declining investment often overlook China's efficient investment strategy in emerging sectors for long-term growth. China has taken measures to stabilize foreign and private sector investments, like reducing the reserve requirement ratio to boost investor confidence.