2021-07-16 • Updated
We will remember the past week for the surge in the US inflation and the soothing comments of the Federal Reserve’s Chair Jerome Powell. Which news and trade opportunities await us in the upcoming days?
With the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday, the EUR will be the highlight of the week. The ECB will likely say more about its new strategy. The bank’s officials have already hinted that they plan to allow inflation to overshoot the 2% target. This would mean that the regulator won’t tighten policy prematurely. The EUR might weaken in EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, and EUR/NZD.
Top US companies will continue hitting the market with earnings reports. This time we’ll hear from J&J, Coca-Cola, eBay, Microsoft, Intel, AT&T, and Twitter. The broad market gauge, S&P 500 (US500) remains near the record highs. The Fed’s assurances about the continuing monetary support represent the main bullish factor. The main risks for the uptrend are the spread of the coronavirus delta variant and the surging inflation. Analysts at Morgan Stanley warned that the odds of a 15% correction in the US stock market are rising as the valuation of technology stocks has become too high. Still, until the decisive technical signals arrive, it’s too early to talk about sell trades.
Oil had the worst week since March. Uncertainty around the prospect for an OPEC+ deal to increase supply has clouded the short-term outlook. The United Arab Emirates is close to a deal that would allow it to boost output in the coming months. On the upside, the demand is expected to rise, and Citigroup sees Brent (XBR/USD) above $80 a barrel even if oil exporters agree to increase production.
Higher inflation in the US and cool comments of the Fed supported gold. If the precious metal manages to overcome resistance at $1838, the targets will be at $1850/$1853.
Risk warning
The following information is not investment advice. Remember that trading is risky. Manage your funds carefully and remember that you can use Take Profit and Stop Loss orders to maximize your gains and limit your losses.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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Don’t waste your time – keep track of how NFP affects the US dollar and profit!
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