2020-12-04 • Updated
GBP/USD is heading for the fifth week of gains in a row amid the weak USD and optimistic vaccine developments. Actually, the UK approved the vaccine of Pfizer and BioNTech for emergency use and started inoculations. However, the pound’s rally may soon stop as the year-end is getting closer along with the Brexit deadline. On Wednesday, the chief EU negotiator Michel Barnier cautioned that the next 36 hours should be decisive for the EU-UK deal. These 36 hours end today, that’s why we can expect some news from this front. Fisheries remain the main sticking point, and also France threatened to veto any EU-UK agreement if it doesn’t satisfy the French side. No-deal Brexit will pressure the pound hugely.
Besides, US NFP will be out at 15:30 MT time today. This report will have a huge impact on the pair if there is no breaking news from Brexit. Analysts believe that the labor market in the USA was damaged by the constantly rising virus cases, therefore they expect the numbers to come worse than the estimates of 480 000, but who knows! The better-than-expected NFP will drive GBP/USD down, the worse-than-expected report – up.
The British pound has performed great so far this month, but as mentioned above there are some downside risks. If GBP/USD manages to break above the resistance of the 1.3487-1.3500 area, the way up to the next round number of 1.3550 will be open. On the flip side, the move below the key psychological mark of 1.3400 will drive the pair to the 50-period moving average of 1.3360, which should support the pair from further losses. One eye on the Brexit news, one eye on NFP!
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