USD/CNH: falling down

USD/CNH: falling down

2020-07-06 • Updated

The pair has broken down two strong supports. What’s next?

Fundamentals

The US dollar is loosening against the Chinese yuan. There are some obvious reasons for that movement. The first reason is the weak US dollar as the USA is suffering from the record resurgence in new cases. Investors are questioning its future economic recovery. The second reason is that, unlike the USA, China has just few new cases every day. Moreover, its last economic data was really encouraging. For instance, this Friday the Chinese Services PMI bet all estimates. It turned out 58.4, while the forecast was 53.8. That was a really good sign for the fast and sustained Chinese economic recovery, that pushed the CNH upward. However, Sino-American trade wars and coronavirus fears may weigh on USD/CNH in the future. Check out the US PMI at 17:00 MT time, it may change the whole market sentiment! If the data turns out better than the forecast, the USD can rise, otherwise-fall.

Technical tips

The Chinese yuan has been gaining for a fifth day straight. It managed to cross two strong support lines: the first one was at the 7.0525 level, that it has touched twice already, and the second one at the 200-day moving average at 7.0450. It surprised most analysts as the pair was trading in a range between 7.0920 and 7.0525 for quite a long time. Therefore, nobody expected that it would escape it today. USD/CNH will meet the next support at the low of March 13 at 7.0200. If it breaks it down, it may fall even deeper to 6.9650. Anyway, keep an eye on resistance levels at the 7.0920 and 7.100. Most analysts stay for selling USD/CNH before the US PMI report. However, after it, you should trade according to the report outcome. Also, monitor where the price will close today. If it closes below the support level at 7.0200, it will move down further.

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