2020-10-22 • Updated
USD/TRY reached 7.94 a week ago. Since then, it was moving down. Lately, it has been floating above 7.76 between the 100-MA and 200-MA. Today, a stunning spike back to the recent highs happened - that's because the Turkish Central Bank refused to increase the interest rate... once again. As you will see, that's the bank's systemic approach, and such a loss of value may not be the last time for the TRY. 
On a larger timeframe, 8.00 is not yet reached but may now soon be challenged. Falling to 7.76 may be a precursor to larger bearish moves to the depths of 7.50 in the midterm but it would need a very substantial pressure downwards to drag it further - meaning, something extraordinarily favorable to the Turkish lira would need to suddenly emerge. In reality, TRY is becoming highly unstable. The fundamentals are bad. The overall technical review suggests that dropdown was merely a tactical stop in the course of a long-term depreciation of the TRY.
Here are some facts from the Turkish reality so far: unemployment 14%, inflation 11%, the US was worth four Turkish liras in 2018 – now it’s almost eight. It’s obvious that the Turkish President prefers to “go out” and go military as he has lately been doing in almost every region surrounding Turkey. Rather than taking a look at the domestic issues and try to – what almost any economist would suggest – raise the interest rates. Geopolitically, there is much more: as much as the US has been lately quite unhappy with how Turkey turns its back on NATO buying Russian arms, if Joe Biden comes to power screws will be tightened even more. In general, Joe Biden appears much less an “entrepreneur” president like Donald Trump and much more an ideologically-driven “old-school-style” president. And such a president will definitely have little approval of the current Turkish approach to external affairs and internal issues. In simple words, the Turkish lira will be in trouble. Well, so far, let’s just watch the bounce from the current lows and see when 8.00 gets crossed by USD/TRY.
Crude oil futures surged on Monday due to disruptions in Russian refining capacity caused by Ukrainian drone strikes and Moscow's decision to cut output to comply with OPEC+ targets. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) contract for May settled at $81.95 a barrel, up $1.32, while the Brent contract for May settled at $86.57 a barrel, also up $1.32. Russia instructed...
Bearish scenario: Sales below 80.00 with TP1: 79.60... Anticipated bullish scenario: Intraday purchases above 80.70 with TP: 81.50...
Brent oil is currently on a bullish trend, facing resistance near $84 and supported by the 200-day EMA. Breaking above this level could lead to a climb towards $90. Short-term support is observed around $80, backed by the 50-day EMA. As summer approaches and travel increases, crude oil tends to benefit from seasonal patterns. Despite temporary setbacks, buying...
Jerome H. Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, stated that the central bank can afford to be patient in deciding when to cut interest rates, citing easing inflation and stable economic growth. Powell emphasized the Fed's independence from political influences, particularly relevant as the election season nears. The Fed had raised interest rates to 5.3 ...
Hello again my friends, it’s time for another episode of “What to Trade,” this time, for the month of April. As usual, I present to you some of my most anticipated trade ideas for the month of April, according to my technical analysis style. I therefore encourage you to do your due diligence, as always, and manage your risks appropriately.
Bearish scenario: Sell below 1.0820 / 1.0841... Bullish scenario: Buy above 1.0827...
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