USD/TRY: a lot of problems... for TRY

Technicals

USD/TRY reached 7.94 a week ago. Since then, it was moving down. Lately, it has been floating above 7.76 between the 100-MA and 200-MA. Today, a stunning spike back to the recent highs happened - that's because the Turkish Central Bank refused to increase the interest rate... once again. As you will see, that's the bank's systemic approach, and such a loss of value may not be the last time for the TRY.

On a larger timeframe, 8.00 is not yet reached but may now soon be challenged. Falling to 7.76 may be a precursor to larger bearish moves to the depths of 7.50 in the midterm but it would need a very substantial pressure downwards to drag it further - meaning, something extraordinarily favorable to the Turkish lira would need to suddenly emerge. In reality, TRY is becoming highly unstable. The fundamentals are bad. The overall technical review suggests that dropdown was merely a tactical stop in the course of a long-term depreciation of the TRY.

Fundamentals

Here are some facts from the Turkish reality so far: unemployment 14%, inflation 11%, the US was worth four Turkish liras in 2018 – now it’s almost eight. It’s obvious that the Turkish President prefers to “go out” and go military as he has lately been doing in almost every region surrounding Turkey. Rather than taking a look at the domestic issues and try to – what almost any economist would suggest – raise the interest rates. Geopolitically, there is much more: as much as the US has been lately quite unhappy with how Turkey turns its back on NATO buying Russian arms, if Joe Biden comes to power screws will be tightened even more. In general, Joe Biden appears much less an “entrepreneur” president like Donald Trump and much more an ideologically-driven “old-school-style” president. And such a president will definitely have little approval of the current Turkish approach to external affairs and internal issues. In simple words, the Turkish lira will be in trouble. Well, so far, let’s just watch the bounce from the current lows and see when 8.00 gets crossed by USD/TRY.

Gaspar Markosyan