The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
All attention to EUR after ECB rate statement
The European central bank will publish the main refinancing rate and make a statement on Thursday, July 16, at 14:45 MT time. Also, the ECB’s press conference will be later at 15:30 MT time.
Instruments to trade: EUR/USD, EUR/CAD, EUR/GBP, EUR/JPY, EUR/NZD, EUR/AUD, EUR/CHF
The main refinancing rate is likely to stay unchanged. Instead of that, traders should focus on the ECB statement and the press conference. It’s expected that the ECB will boost its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Programme (PEPP) with an additional 1 trillion euros. Economists consider that the central bank will increase the PEPP to reach the target rate of inflation at nearly 2%. It will prove that officials shift their focus from the short term to the medium term goal – from mitigating crisis to supporting economic recovery. Pay attention on economic guidelines that officials will give. It’s really important as it will define the future movement of the Euro.
If the ECB leaves everything unchanged and gives pessimistic forecasts, the EUR may fall.
If the ECB increases the size of PEPP and gives optimistic forecasts, the EUR can rise.
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
What will happen? ECB will report its Monetary Policy statement at 14:45 MT (GMT+3) on Thursday, October 28…
What will happen? BOC will report its Monetary Policy statement at 17:00 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, October 27…
What will happen? Australian Bureau of Statistics will announce Core PCE Price Index at 03:30 MT (GMT+3) on Wednesday, October 27…