The first week of November promises to be eventful, as we have the Fed meeting, the BOE update, and the NFP release. Read more details here.
Boris Johnson drives the GBP up
While all eyes are on the trade talks between the United States and China, traders can profit on other events. The British pound has rallied versus the other major currencies on the growing expectations that Prime Minister Boris Johnson would win a majority at December 12 election.
The promise of Brexit is strengthening the GBP
Market’s confidence in Johnson rose after he promised to deliver Brexit by the end of January and a tax-cutting budget within 100 days of winning the vote. He also pledged to review defense, increase funding for schools, and introduce legislation on immigration to Parliament.
The Labour Party, the main competitor of Johnson and Co., issued a statement criticizing the previous policies of the Conservative Party, which has been in power for about “3,500 days”. Yet, this criticism did not waver optimism in Johnson and the GBP.
It is obvious that the Conservatives are trying to show the population how much better their majority government would be in comparison with a hung parliament – a prospect that will become reality if the Prime Minister’s party does not get enough support. So far, Johnson is leading in the opinion polls. Investors liked his latest comments a lot: as you can see from the chart of GBP/USD, they are willing to buy the pound right now, without waiting for the actual outcome of the election.
The short-term outlook for the GBP is positive, although the British currency has become somewhat overbought after soaring by more than 100 pips during one day. GBP/USD has the scope to strengthen to the resistance between 1.3170 and 1.3200. The psychologically important level of 1.30 will now offer support.
There are no doubts that GBP/USD will offer superb trading opportunities in the upcoming hours.
Geopolitical factors and inflation remain the main drivers of financial markets. Let’s see how to use that in trading!
Great Britain will publish the Inflation Rate on October 20, at 09:00 MT time (GMT+3).
This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.