Morgan Stanley analytics forecast the economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter. Here’s why.
Canadian economy manages to pick up
In the second quarter, the Canadian economy managed to expand at the fastest tempo for one year because exports rallied. That’s what data from Statistics Canada disclosed on Thursday. However, the improved surge wasn’t anticipated to trigger another interest lift next week from the Bank of Canada.
The country’s gross domestic product tacked on at an annualized rate of 2.9% in the second quarter of 2018. The given outcome is short of market experts’ hopes for 3%, although ahead of the Bank of Canada's forecast of 2.8%.
It’s a bit below hopes, although still indicating a doubling of the surge rate relative to this point within the first quarter, as some financial analysts pointed out.
The country’s key financial institution is geared up towards tightening further, although the bank stressed that the pace would be gradual. Some market experts are assured that the bank is going to remain on the sidelines in September. However, there’s a likelihood that a powerful move can show up on October if the data keep demonstrating firm underlying strength.
Canada’s key financial institution that has had interest rates lifted four times since July last year will come up with a decision on its interest rates on Wednesday.
The likelihood of a rate lift at that gathering dived to less than 20% from 23% before the data, as follows from the overnight index swaps market.
Besides this, the Canadian dollar that has been spurred this week by upbeat mood that a trilateral deal to have the North American Free Trade Agreement revamped could be finally reached, slumped by nearly 0.6% versus its American rival.
The surge in the second quarter appeared to be the fastest since the same period of 2017, while the first-quarter surge was updated upwards from 1.3% to 1.4%.
Traders are waiting for the Fed statement at 21:00 MT time. The market reaction depends on how far their expectations will meet the Jerome Powell’s speech.
Today is the big day! Investors are waiting for NFP at 15:30 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia will publish its statement and announce the interest rate on July 7, at 7:30 MT time.
The overall market sentiment was mixed after the USA recorded the largest increase in virus cases since May 9. The data even offset the better-than-expected NFP.
The risk-on tone is back on the market again. Let’s look at main trading opportunities.