The US dollar turned to the upside on Monday. Let's discuss what to expect next from the market.
Daily news: Brexit tensions and Italian budget meeting
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) left the cash rate unchanged at 1.5%. The key points of the RBA statement included positive forecasts for business conditions and labor market, higher inflation in 2019-2020, slow wage growth and uncertainty in the consumption of households.
Most of these comments remain unchanged from the previous month. The pair AUD/USD has continued to fall downwards the support at 0.7177. After this level the next support is at 0.7130. If any positive news for Australia comes out, the price will increase. In that case, the resistance is at 0.7250.
- The UK Prime Minister Theresa May noted, that the outlines of the 2016’s referendum should be followed. In addition, the UK Times article had more statements from May. The concession she suggested limits Britain’s ability to negotiate on free trade deals after Brexit. This means the UK would stay in the custom union longer, than it was planned. The aim of the concession is to limit Brexit uncertainties between the UK and the EU. Moreover, a former secretary of State for foreign and commonwealth affairs Boris Johnson is planning to make a speech during the Conservative party conference at 15:00 MT time. It is expected that he would criticize May’s plan. As a result of these tensions, the GBP dropped, crossing the 50-day MA at 1.2980. If Johnson’s speech affects the pair negatively, the price will decrease. The support is at 1.2940. Otherwise, if there are any positive opinions on Brexit future during the conference, the price will go up. The resistance is at 1.3080.
- The main focus for the US today is on Fed Chair Jerome Powell speech at 19:45 MT time. Analysts expect his outlook for the levels of employment and inflation. FOMC member Randal K.Quarles is also planning to deliver a speech today at 17:00 MT time. The USD index is moving up to the resistance at 95.40. If there is any negative news for the USD, the price will return to the support at 95.00.
- EUR/USD keeps declining following the updates on the Italian budget crisis. Goldman Sachs analysts say that the current situation may downgrade the rating of Italy. They anticipate the public debt to rise. Italy is awaiting for the clearer view on its budget targets. The meeting of Italian prime minister with key ministers today at 20:00 MT time could possibly give some clues on the problem. The euro is trading near the support at 1.15. If the price moves downwards, the next support will be at 1.1413. If there is any positive news supporting euro, the price will go upwards the resistance at 50-day MA (1.1610).
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Three main drivers of the market: the stimulus package, the US presidential election and the coronavirus. Let's look how market reacts.
EU Flash Manufacturing & Services PMI will come out on Friday at 11:00 MT time!
The focus of traders’ attention shifted from Brexit and the US stimulus to the coronavirus . The WHO claimed that Europe become the new Covid-19 epicenter.
Canada will publish the monthly GDP growth on October 30 at 14:30 MT time.
The European Central Bank publishes the monetary policy statement alongside with an update on the interest rate on October 29, at 14:45 MT time.