The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
Daily News: lots of moves
- The USD has been trying to recover. Yesterday the doji star pattern was formed. It always signals the indecision of the market and the possibility of a reversal. Yesterday the index rebounded from the support at 94.50. Up to now, it has been trying to move to 95. The USD needs really strong support to break above 95 (50-day MA lies there). Prelim GDP data will be out today at 15:30 MT time. If the actual data is greater than the forecast, the index will be able to hit above 95. Otherwise, there is a possibility of the fall.
- Important news for the CAD. According to the Canadian press, Canada is ready to make concessions on dairy market, preserve guarantees for the cultural industry and prevent tighter protection of pharmaceutical patents to save the agreement with the US. The concessions will cost a lot to Canada.
Up to now, the USD/CAD trading is unstable. There is no clear move. The pair is above the support at 1.2921. If the news on talks is positive, the pair will break below the support. The next one is at 1.2856. If the news is negative, the pair will go up. The resistance is at 1.2973. Today talks between the US and Canada start in Washington. Follow the news to not miss CAD’s moves.
- Negative news for the AUD. Westpac announced a rise of its variable home loan. This will negatively affect household debt that is already a problem for the central bank. Worsening of the household debt figures will make the RBA keep the interest rate on hold for a longer time.
AUD reacted with a plunge. AUD/USD broke below the pivot point at 0.7314. If the USD is stronger, the pair will fall further. The support is at 0.7272. Otherwise, it will be able to recover and return above the pivot point.
- Crude oil inventories data will be released today at 17:30 MT time. According to a private survey, there will be a build in the data. It’s a negative signal for the oil market. If the actual data shows a bigger surplus, oil prices will fall. If the actual data is weaker than the forecast, the oil prices will rise.
Up to now, Brent has been going down. The support lies at 74.50 (9- and 50-day MAs). In case of a deficit in the data, the price will go up. The resistance is at 77.45.
WTI has been moving down as well. In case of the supportive data (a deficit), the price will turn around and go up. The resistance is at 69.40. If the data shows a surplus, the price will go further down. The support is at 67.65.
That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
The US unemployment claims are out on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.