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Morgan Stanley forecasts the weaker USD in the third quarter of 2019, the return to the weaker movement will happen in August 2018.
Forecasts for pairs within the 1 year:
USD/JPY 88.00 - 101.00.
EUR/USD 1.18 - 1.30.
GBP/USD 1.32 - 1.50.
AUD/USD 0.67 - 0.75.
According to ANZ, trade wars tensions were the main reason for the Asian currencies’ weakness. The Bank says that even if trade wars tensions don’t ease in the near future, the Asian currencies weakness may ease soon. However, the Bank adds that although the average fair value of the CNY is $6, the gap in the valuation unlikely will be covered soon.
Last week USD/CNH was trading near the highs of August 2017 at 6.7250. Up to now, the pair has been going down because of the weak USD. However, according to Morgan Stanley, traders shouldn’t anticipate the soon fall of the pair. Key targets are supports at 6.6780 (the pivot point) and 6.6275, resistances at 6.7250 and 6.7570. The stronger USD will pull the pair up.
The pound is rising despite mixed economic data. Average earnings index and unemployment rate data were neutral while claimant count change’s figure was weaker than the forecast.
GBP/USD rebounded from the pivot point at 1.3235. Up to now, the pair has been moving to the resistance at 1.3280. If the USD is weaker, the pair will be able to break this level, the next resistance will be at 1.3315 (50-day MA). Otherwise, the pair will return to the pivot point at 1.3235 and there will be risks of the fall to 1.31.
That’s all for today! Follow market news with FBS!
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