ECB: what’s next for the euro?

What?

The European Central Bank will meet today to discuss the current monetary policy and the fate of the quantitative easing program. As usual, the event will start with the release of the monetary policy statement and the announcement of the interest rate at 14:45 MT time. After that, there is a press conference at 15:30 MT time.

What to expect?

While the interest rate will most likely remain stable at 0%, the main focus of traders will be on the tone of the ECB President Christine Lagarde and the release of the strategic review. The strategic review will provide us the details on factors and which may have an impact on the future ECB monetary policy decisions. During December’s meeting, the data signaled about stabilization in the GDP growth of the Eurozone. In fact, analysts have already told that the current ECB team is far less dovish than the one headed by Mario Draghi. However, the stimulus program has been left untouched yet. According to the words of Christine Lagarde, the global uncertainties keep being the major issue for Europe. Thus, her words may hurt the euro, if she sees the risks increasing.

The euro levels

EUR/USD has been consolidating on the H4 chart between 1.1094 and 1.1075 levels. If the ECB is hawkish, we expect the breakout of the 1.1094 level and rise towards 1.107. The next key resistance will be placed at 1.1075. On the other hand, the negative comments by the ECB will pull the pair below the 1.1075 level towards the next support at 1.1066. The next key level will be placed at 1.1054.

So, to sum up today you need to: 

1) Wait for the updates on the monetary policy; 

2) Review the hints on the further easing in the strategic review; 

3) Follow the comments by the ECB President Christine Lagarde during the Press Conference; 

4) And, of course, press

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Ekaterina Gorbatenko

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