The ECB Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts will be released at 14:30 MT on January 16
Elections in South Africa: the rally is on
South Africa is holding its biggest elections today since the dawn of the democracy. The voters will have 48 parties to choose from. The leading parties are the African National Congress (ANC) party, the main opposition centrist Democratic Alliance (DA) and the radical-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
According to analysts, the victory of the current president Cyril Ramaphosa and the ANC party will boost the South African Rand. He promised to take down the corruption which affected the party’s reputation during the presidency of Jacob Zuma. Investors anticipate Cyril Ramaphosa to stick to his words and follow the pro-reform agenda.
However, the ruling party will likely face a great challenge. Some people do not trust the words of the president and give their votes to the opposition parties. If the ANC does not gain the majority of the votes, the ZAR will go down.
What are the key levels for USD/ZAR right now?
At the moment, USD/ZAR is moving down towards the weekly pivot support at 14.2761. This level lies close to the 50-day SMA. If the Rand continues to strengthen, the next support will lie at 14.2090. If the current party does not gain support today, the pair will rise above the weekly central pivot at 14.3969. The next key resistance will lie at 14.5237.
If we look at indicators, Stochastics formed a bearish divergence with the price. It provided us a selling opportunity.
We expect the US-China phase one trade deal to be signed on Wednesday and multiple important indicators for the USD. Plus, it is the first week of the earnings reports
The British yearly CPI will be released at 11:30 MT on January 15
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The recent Chinese figures bring optimism
On Thursday, January 16 two central banks: the Reserve bank of South Africa and the Turkish Central Bank will make their interest rate decisions.