The Fed is ready to start tapering in November. Since the markets were expecting this and it wasn’t a surprise, the USD slumped allowing risk-on currencies and gold to rally up.
EUR/USD regains yesterday's losses
The US dollar surged yesterday after the positive US data. Manufacturing and Services PMI reports came out better than expected. Besides, analysts marked that it was the first time for a while that the US dollar rose not because of its safe-haven title in times of the risk-off sentiment, but on its self-strength like any other national currency, when its’ economic data beats estimates. Before that, the greenback was on the back foot as investors favored riskier assets amid hopes for soon vaccinations in the USA and the UK.
That’s why yesterday we have seen a 100-pips drop of EUR/USD, caused by the mixed EU PMI reports and the encouraging US data. However, the 50-period moving average has supported the pair again. If it manages to rise above yesterday’s high of 1.1876. the doors towards the key resistance zone of 1.1890-1.1900 will be open. In the opposite scenario, the move below the support of 1.1830 will drive the pair lower to 1.1800.
The British pound continues edging higher amid hopes for a soon Brexit agreement. EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier claimed that even though some disputes are still on the table, both sides are interested in reaching a deal as soon as possible. It dipped briefly yesterday but managed to turn to the upside again. The move above the resistance of 1.3350 will drive the pair to the key psychological mark of 1.3400. Support levels are at yesterday’s low of 1.3300 and the 50-period moving average of 1.3235.
Gold enormously dipped. There are no barriers on its way down to the key support of the intersection of the 200-day moving average and the psychological mark of $1 800. XAU/USD is likely to bounce off this level and turn to the upside. It may meet resistance levels at $1 850 and $ 1870 on the way up.
Moving on to the S&P 500. The stock index is edging higher. If it jumps above the resistance of 3 615, the way to the high of November 16 at 3 630 will be open. In the opposite scenario, the move below the 50-period moving average of 3 575 will drive the S&P 500 to the next support of 3 550.
Finally, let’s discuss crude oil. WTI oil surged to August’s highs on hopes for a vaccine rollout in a couple of weeks. If it manages to close above $43.50, it may rise to $45.00. Support levels are $41.60 and $40.00.
Follow US CB Consumer Confidence at 17:00 MT time!
US Retail Sales will be out on October 15 at 15:30 MetaTrader time (GMT+3).
The crypto market keeps recovering. Bitcoin has broken above $57,000. The way up to $60,000 is open now!
The US dollar is heading to close the seventh day in the red as it remains under selling pressure. The US data at 15:30 GMT+3 (jobless claims and Philly Fed Manufacturing Index) may support the greenback if it's strong.
Canada will publish the Retail Sales and Core Retail Sales on October 22, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).
The United States will release the weekly Unemployment Claims on October 21, at 15:30 MT time (GMT+3).