The US dollar’s weakness offered a boost to emerging-market currencies and oil.
Forex today: appreciation against the USD
- The US dollar index strongly fell on Wednesday because of weak economic data. Prelim GDP growth was weaker than the forecast one by 1 percentage point (2.2% vs 2.3%). ADP nonfarm employment change was weaker as well (178K vs 191K). Up to now, the US dollar index is below $93.90. The support lies at $93.50. A lot of economic data will be released today. If actual data are greater than the forecast ones, the US dollar will be able to recover.
- US President Mr. Trump plans to impose metal tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and the European Union. He is supposed to announce tariffs on Thursday.
- The euro didn’t react to such an announcement. On Wednesday, EUR/USD rebounded from the support at 1.1520 and broke two resistances at 1.1580 and 1.1650. Up to now, the pair is trading near the pivot point at 1.17. Also, the pair tested the trendline. Today traders will look at CPI flash estimate and core CPI flash estimate. The forecast is encouraging. If the actual data are greater than the forecast, the euro will have chances to go further. The resistances are at 1.17 and 1.1770. If the data aren’t positive, the EUR/USD pair will return to 1.1650.
- The Canadian dollar didn’t react to the news about sanctions too. On Wednesday, USD/CAD broke the support at 1.2930 (50.0 Fibo level) because of a less cautious report of the Bank of Canada. Up to now, the pair is trading near 1.2850. The next support is at 1.28. Today Canadian GDP data will be released at 15:30 MT time. The forecast is weak, however, if the actual data is greater, the Canadian dollar will continue to appreciate. Otherwise, the pair will return to 1.2930.
- Other currencies are appreciating against the US dollar because of its weakness too.
- On Wednesday, oil managed to rebound because of the news from OPEC and its allies. Last week Russia and Saudi Arabia declared that despite the continuing output cuts program, OPEC and non-OPEC producers will revive the output. As a result, oil lost momentum and fell. Yesterday OPEC and non-OPEC allies clarified the situation. Allies will stick to a global pact on cutting oil supplies until the end of 2018 but they are ready to make gradual adjustments to offset any supply shortage. As a result, Brent managed to close above $77 a barrel, WTI climbed to $68.35. Up to now, oil is depreciating again.
Brent rebounded from the pivot point at 77.60 and moving downward. The support lies at 74.70.
WTI is trading below $70 but above the support at $67.70 (50-day MA).
Today traders will have a look at oil crude inventories data at 18:00 MT time. The forecast is weaker than the previous figure. It is a positive sign for oil. If the actual data is weaker than the forecast, oil will have chances to return its upward movement.
- Gold is rising because of trade tensions and the weak US dollar. Gold is moving to the 200-day MA that lies at 1,308. If XAU/USD is able to break this level, the next resistance is at 1,311. Otherwise, the pair will return to 1,300 (trendline).
That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
The main market tendency today is that the US dollar is rising against its major peers and riskier assets such as stocks and oil are plummeting.
The US unemployment claims are out on Thursday at 15:30 MT time.
Poor US data, slow vaccine distribution, rising virus cases worsened the market sentiment and underpinned safe-haven currencies like the USD, and JPY.
The European Central Bank will publish the monetary policy statement with the interest rate decision on January 21, at 14:45 MT time.
Joe Biden is going to unveil a Covid-19 relief package of about $2 trillion. After this announcement, the 10-year Treasury yield rose, adding support for the USD.