Fed Chair Jerome Powell will testify today at 19:05 MT time. This event is crucial for traders as the tone of the speech may set the risk tone for the markets for the next two weeks.
Forex today: geopolitics remain in focus
- No important data is anticipated today, as a result, markets are calm.
- The US dollar managed to recover after last week’s slight fall. However, the trading is soft and the greenback has not reached a new high. USD is around 92.60.
- The downward movement of the euro is continuing. No significant EU economic data is anticipated neither on Monday nor on Tuesday. As a result, the EUR/USD may come closer to the support at 1.1860.
- The pound is not showing a significant movement as it is a Bank holiday. GBP/USD rebounded from the support at 1.3525 (200-day MA), however, the trading is not extensive, so the pair is not far from that level. No important data for the UK currency is anticipated on Tuesday, so the pair may decline. The support lies at 1.34.
- On Friday, USD/JPY reached the 100-day MA at 108.80 and rebounded. As the US dollar is gaining momentum, the USD/JPY pair is moving up. Moreover, traders in Asia returned from the Golden Week holidays and releasing its meeting minutes the BOJ again confirmed its willingness to continue the easing monetary policy. Let’s look at the chart. USD/JPY is near the pivot point at 109.30. If the pair is able to break it, the next aim is at 109.90. In the case of the downward movements, the support will still lie at 108.80.
- At the beginning of the new week, the Australian dollar could not stick above the pivot point at 0.7530 and fell. The AUD/USD pair is moving to the support at 0.7480. Tomorrow important AUD economic data will be out: retail sales at 4:30 MT time and annual budget release at 12:30 MT time. If the actual data of the retail sales is greater than expected, AUD will have chances to recover. The annual budget report will give traders clues on the government’s budget. An important level the aussie needs to break to move up is 0.7530.
- The New Zealand dollar is declining as well. NZD/USD is continuing to trade within 0.6980-7055. Tomorrow inflation expectations’ data will be released. If it is bigger than expected, the kiwi has chances to turn around. The movement within the same range is anticipated.
- Bitcoin again could not break an important level of $10,000. On weekends, the cryptocurrency could not break the resistance at $9,900 (200-day MA) and rebounded. Comments of Warren Buffet might affect Bitcoin as he declared that “bitcoin is probably rat poison squared”. If the digital currency continues to decline, the support will lie at $8,700 (100-day MA).
- By May 12 the US president Donald Trump will decide whether the US should stay in the Iran nuclear deal or not. As a result, investors will look for his decision as it will affect the oil market.
- By the way, on Monday oil has reached new highs. Both oil benchmarks Brent and WTI are trading on highs of the end of 2014. Brent is near $75.50, WTI is above $70.
If the US decide to leave the Iran deal, the crude will have chances to stick to new highs.
That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
Non-farm payrolls, the most awaited economic report, will be out on March 5 at 15:30 MT time.
Australian GDP rose by 3.1%, exceeding analysts’ forecasts of 2.5%. The Australian dollar climbed after the release, but then joined its peers in falling against the USD.
Great news for oil bulls! OPEC and its allied producers agreed to expand output cuts for the next month.
The USD skyrocketed after Fed Powell’s speech. OPEC and allied producers agreed to extend production cuts for another month. Oil surged.
The European Central Bank publishes its monetary policy statement that includes an announcement of the interest rate on March 11, at 14:45 MT time.