What events to follow and how to trade during the week of July 2-6?
Forex today: the USD continues to plunge
- The US dollar index is lower and lower. It is trading near $93.65. Forecasts for today’s economic data aren’t encouraging. If the actual data are greater than the forecast, the US dollar will have chances to find a foothold. Otherwise, the index will fall to the support at $93.50.
- Finally, the euro strongly rebounded from the support at 1.1650. Up to now, EUR/USD is trading above the resistance at 1.1750. No important economic data will be released today, so the euro can rely only on the weak greenback. 50-day MA is near to cross the 200-day MA upside down. It’s a warning signal for the trading. There is a risk of the fall, however, until MAs will be crossed, the trading will be bullish.
The euro is highly volatile as the European Central Bank keeps the quantitative easing program. However, positive news for the euro may come on June 14 when the ECB will hold a press conference. European Central Bank policy makers anticipate holding a pivotal discussion at their meeting next week that could conclude with a public announcement on when they intend to cease asset purchases. Moreover, the ECB is anticipated to debate whether to gradually unwind bond purchases. The head of Germany’s central bank, Jens Weidmann, said market expectations for an end to bond-buying by end-2018 were plausible.
- The Japanese yen continues to depreciate against the US dollar. USD/JPY rebounded from the support at 109.70. Up to now, the pair is trading near the 200-day MA (110.20) that is a strong resistance for the pair. If the US dollar index continues to fall, the pair won’t be able to break the resistance, otherwise, the pair will move further to 110.85.
- The Australian dollar is rising again because of encouraging economic data. GDP growth was greater than expected (1.0% vs 0.9%). As a result, AUD/USD rebounded from the support at 0.7610 and tested resistances at 0.7640 and 0.7660. On the weekly chart, 100-week MA at 0.7640 doesn’t let the pair stick above it. No more significant data will be released today. However, tomorrow traders will take into consideration trade balance data (4:30 MT time). The forecast is weaker than the previous data, so the AUD/USD pair has risks to return to 0.76 (50-day MA is a strong support). If the data is greater than the forecast, the aussie will have chances to gain a foothold above 0.7660.
- Oil is going up. Brent is trading near $75.90, WTI is at $65.60. Today investors will look at crude oil inventories data at 17:30 MT time. The forecast shows a decline of inventories, however, the decline is less than the previous data. If the actual one shows a surplus or less deficit than the forecast, both oil benchmarks will decline.
Brent: support lies at $74.60 (50-day MA and the trendline), resistance is at $76.65.
WTI: support is at $65.20 (100-day MA), the resistance is at $66.30 (the trendline).
That is all for today. Follow markets news with us!
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The Bank of England will publish a monetary policy statement and update on the interest rate on Thursday, at 14:00 MT time.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will hold a meeting and announce changes to the monetary policy on August 3, at 07:30 MT time (GMT+3).