Morgan Stanley analytics forecast the economy will return to pre-crisis levels by the fourth quarter. Here’s why.
German exports rally in May
In May, German exports managed to ascend more than imports, thus extending the trade surplus, according to Monday’s data. That’s another indication that the EU’s leading economy is still in a good shape notwithstanding trade tensions with America.
On the month, seasonally updated exports went up by about 1.8%, according to data from the Federal Statistics. As for imports, they surged by 0.7%.
A Reuters survey had showed that exports soared by 0.75% as well as imports diving by 0.3%.
The recent weakening of the common currency should generate some relief in the nearer months. It would more than compensate current American duties on European steel and aluminum.
The previous week, finance minister Scholz issued a warning that Donald Trump's intention to put duties on products imported from the European Union and China, would damage everybody.
The previous month US leader threatened to put a 20% import duty on all EU-assembled cars, which could turn the industry’s current business model for selling vehicles in America upside down.
Besides this, US leader hit Canada, Mexico and the European Union with duties of 25% on steel and also 10% on aluminum in June, thus ending exemptions, which had been in place since March. In turn, Canada and the EU repelled this attack with their own tariffs on American products.
China has also hit American products with tariffs responding to Trump's intention to put tariffs on China’s imports, frightening German producers who are used to relying on the world's two leading economies for surge.
In May, the German seasonally updated trade surplus extended to 20.3 billion euros from April’s outcome of 19.0 billion euros. The given outcome topped the Reuters consensus estimate of about 20.0 billion euros.
Additionally, Germany's wider current account surplus, gauging the flow of services, investments, and products dived to 12.6 billion euros from April’s 23.5 billion euros.
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