Get Ready for the NFP Release

Get Ready for the NFP Release

Good Friday, traders! The markets are frozen ahead of today's NFP release at 15:30 GMT+2.  

Events of the day:

15:30 GMT+2, Canada's Unemployment rate

15:30 GMT+2, US Nonfarm Employment Change

15:30 GMT+2, US Unemployment Rate

15:30 GMT+2, US Average Hourly Earnings m/m

NFP release will shake EURUSD

The last day of the week could be a decisive one for EURUSD. Last night the currency pair reached a peak of 1.0539, the highest since June 29. 

Indeed, investors are waiting for the US employment figures for November. The consensus forecast calls for job creation to slow to 200k from 261k in the previous month, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 3.7% and average hourly earnings expected to rise to 4.6% from 4.7% the previous month.

As for the potential reaction of the Euro-Dollar to these figures, bad news should reinforce expectations of a slowdown in Fed rate hikes, which would be negative for the dollar and positive for EURUSD. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected NFP report could strengthen the dollar, although this is unlikely enough to challenge the prospect of a Fed pivot in December.

Currently, EURUSD is testing the 50-week moving average. If the breakout happens, the price might reach 1.0750 in December. In the reversed situation, a pullback to 1.0270 is expected. 

EURUSDWeekly.png

Other news:

  • The ECB's balance sheet has already begun to shrink sharply. The ECB has yet to announce the start of QT. Lagarde recently said that the ECB will announce key principles for balance sheet reduction in December.
  • The Economist: In light of the imposition of a European embargo and a price ceiling, some of the oil exported from Russia may disappear from the market, provoking a price hike. But a much worse scenario is also possible if Russia voluntarily cuts oil exports and prices spiral out of control.
  • The "fear and greed" indicator of US stocks went to the extreme level of greed.
  • Zuckerberg, Amazon CEO, and BlackRock CEO expect a gloomy outlook for the US economy.
  • The head of the Central Bank of China stated that the major focus is on the country's economic growth.

Take advantage of the market and good luck!

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Latest news

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The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make a statement and release a Cash Rate on February 7, 05:30 GMT+2. It's among the primary tools the RBA uses to communicate with investors about monetary policy.

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This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.

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What Currency Will Overperform?

S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.

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