This week may be the most important since the year started as the Fed assess the economic outlook and the US presents fresh NFP readings.
Gold May Form Double Top & Flat Strategy for S&P
- The Reserve Bank of Australia has left the policy and rates unchanged as the markets widely expected. However, the bank surprised investors with its readiness to keep the September tapering plan on the table! It helped the AUD to recover some losses caused by the latest local lockdowns in Australia.
- US Manufacturing PMI came out worse than analysts expected: 59.5 vs the expected 60.8. The combination of the rapid spread of the Covid-19 strain and the signs of strong but slower US manufacturing growth pushed the S&P 500 lower.
- China’s Manufacturing PMI was worse than expected as well. After that, oil dropped as China is one of the largest oil importers. Besides, the current virus resurgence added headwinds.
- The Fed’s tapering debate keeps going. Its Governor Christopher Waller claimed he might back a tapering announcement by September if the US job reports will be robust in the next two months.
- Alibaba will reveal its earnings results today at 14:30 GMT+3.
EUR/USD is moving back and forth. If it drops below the recent low of 1.1860, it will fall to the 50-period moving average of 1.1830. On the flip side, if it breaks above 1.1890, it may jump to the psychological mark of 1.1910.
Gold has been falling for the third day in a row. The 100-day moving average at $1800 may become a serious obstacle. Thus, the metal may struggle to cross it and then reverse up from it. However, the two peaks at $1833 (the 50% Fibo level) look interesting. If gold drops below the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of $1790, the Double Top pattern will be confirmed.
S&P 500 (US500) is easy to trade now! It’s moving sideways in a range between 4380 and 4425. We even have a special strategy for this kind of situation, which you can read in our article “Strategy For Flat Trading: Rubber Band”. Based on this strategy, we should wait for the price to reach whether the lower line of Bollinger Bands at 4380 and consider buying or the upper line of 4425 and consider selling.
S&P Global, a private banking company, will release a monthly change in British Flash Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) on January 24, 11:30 GMT+2. The index is a leading indicator of economic health as businesses react quickly to market conditions, and purchasing managers hold the most current and relevant insight into the company's view of the economy.
The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) m/m on January 12 at 15:30 GMT+2. The index measures a change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.
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The RBA and the Bank of Canada will add volatility to the AUD and the CAD, while USD is expected to be boosted by the Non-farm payrolls.